Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike.
Farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from last year’s elevated levels, reflecting tighter margins and higher fertilizer costs.
Soybean plantings are expected to reach 84.7 million acres, up 4% year over year, supported by lower nitrogen requirements, strong domestic crush demand and crop rotation following large corn acreage in 2025.
For wheat, farmers planted 43.775 million acres for harvest this year, which was down from 45.328 million acres last year — and the lowest since records began in 1919, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed.
Most Midwest farmers grow corn and soybeans, alternating what is planted on each field every year to preserve soil health.
Some acres can break from the traditional rotation if growers see an opportunity to turn a better profit or lose less money.
Soybean acreage is expected to be highest in Illinois at 10.5 million acres, followed by Iowa at 9.9 million acres and Minnesota at 7.3 million acres.
Corn acreage is expected to be highest in Iowa at 13.1 million acres, followed by Illinois at 10.9 million acres and Nebraska at 10.3 million acres.
Ongoing volatility in fertilizer markets, evolving export demand, particularly from China, and spring weather conditions may influence how acres are ultimately allocated.
Prices for urea fertilizer are up about 40% since the start of the war while costs for anhydrous ammonia are up nearly 20%, according to a report from economists at the University of Illinois.
Meanwhile, U.S. net farm income is forecast to turn lower this year despite near-record government payments, marking the fourth straight year of crop producers facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices.
The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by President Donald Trump’s administration with the top soy importer.
The administration is in the process of distributing $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers. As the repercussions of the Iran war rattle the broader economy, farm groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid.
Given these uncertainties, markets will now turn their attention to planting progress, early-season weather conditions and export demand signals.
Farm Relief Has Almost Been Entirely Delivered
The Farmer Bridge Assistance program is providing support for row-crop farmers in the midst of the historic farm economy downturn.
In December, USDA announced $12 billion in one-time bridge payments, with $11 billion set aside for row-crop producers in the FBA program, and the remaining $1 billion reserved for specialty crop and sugar growers in the Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers program.
Nearly $9.6 billion in FBA payments have already been disbursed, with nearly 500,000 applications approved by the Farm Service Agency.
Specialty crop farmers are still awaiting details pertaining to payments under the ASCF program, while sugar producers have been separately allocated $150 million in assistance with distribution details still being finalized.
Corn and soybean acres have received the majority of FBA payments, with corn payments alone, at $3.45 billion, accounting for nearly 42% of the program’s disbursements.
Soybeans at $2.27 billion, wheat at $1.34 billion, cotton at $874 million and rice at $307 million round out the top five.
Iowa has received the highest total of FBA payments so far, with farmers there receiving $843 million in payments from the FSA.
Texas and Illinois are a close second and third, respectively, with farmers in those states receiving $784 million and $765 million in FBA payments.
While farm safety net improvements enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last July — increased reference prices, enhanced crop insurance premium support and increased marketing assistance loan rates — will strengthen protection moving forward, FBA is helping farmers bridge the immediate downturn facing the farm economy in 2026.
However, with farm finances continuing to worsen and fertilizer and fuel prices rising, additional economic assistance in upcoming legislation is needed to help producers manage mounting pressures and sustain production.
That need is further underscored by remaining gaps, as specialty crop and sugar growers continue to face significant uncovered losses and sectors such as alfalfa, aquaculture and timber were not included in the program.
James Henry is the executive editor of Illinois AgriNews and Indiana AgriNews.