Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. (NASDAQ:CDRO) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript May 7, 2026
Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $0.1509, expectations were $0.05511.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Codere Online First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Guillermo Lancha, Director of Investor Relations and Communications at Codere Online. Please go ahead.
Guillermo Lancha: Thanks, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Codere Online’s earnings call for the first quarter of 2026. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Aviv Sher; and CFO, Marcus Arildsson. Our Executive Vice Chairman, Moshe Edree, will also join us in the Q&A session. Please note that figures reflected in today’s presentation are preliminary and unaudited and include certain non-IFRS financial metrics, which should be considered in addition to our IFRS results. Reconciliations and further details are available in the appendix. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. While these statements reflect our current expectations, we undertake no obligation to update them after this call.
A replay and transcript will be available at cohereonline.com, where investors can also sign up for e-mail alerts. Additionally, I would like to draw your attention to our recently filed annual report, where you can find detailed financial and other information regarding the company. With that, I will go ahead and pass the call on to Aviv.
Aviv Sher: Thanks, Guillermo, and thank you all for joining us today. We are very pleased with how we started 2026, delivering a solid first quarter that reflects continued momentum in the business and good execution across our key markets despite a still demanding operating and regulatory environment. Starting with the highlights for the first quarter of 2026 on Page 8. We delivered a consolidated net gaming revenue of EUR 64.4 million, which represents a 13% increase versus first quarter of last year and 6% sequentially. This growth was supported by a healthy underlying trends across both casino and sports betting and confirms that the top line reacceleration we saw in the second half of 2025 has carried into a new year — into the new year.
Looking at the revenue mix, Casino once again accounted for the majority of our net revenue in the quarter, representing 63% of the total, with the remaining 37% coming from sports betting. This mix is very consistent with the recent quarters and continues to reflect the importance of casino as a key engagement and growth driver for our business. Turning to the operating KPIs. Performance in this quarter was driven by further expansion of our active customer base. Average monthly active customers reached approximately 183,000 in Q1, which is 14% higher than the same period last year. This reflects continued strength in acquisition, combined with a solid retention across our portfolio. Average monthly spend per active customer was EUR 117, around 1% below Q1 of last year.
As we have mentioned before, this is consistent with a broader and more diversified customer base and does not change our positive view on the quality and long-term value of the players we are acquiring. Although we will cover later, we are working to optimize our active customer base in Mexico. On the acquisition side, during the quarter, we have acquired approximately 90,000 FTDs at an average CPA of EUR 212, which represents an increase both year-on-year and sequentially. This reflects a combination of more competitive marketing environment at the start of the year, particularly in our core markets and deliberately shift in mix towards higher-value cohorts and channels. As in prior periods, we remain disciplined in our approach and continue to prioritize customer quality, profitability and lifetime value over short-term volume.
With respect to capital allocation, we did not repurchase any shares under our share buyback plan during the first quarter. As a reminder, the program remains in place through the end of 2026, and we will continue to evaluate repurchases based on market conditions and business priorities. Finally, looking ahead, our outlook for the full year of 2026 remains unchanged. We continue to guide net gaming revenue in the range of EUR 235 million to EUR 245 million and adjusted EBITDA between EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million. This guidance reflects both the strong start of the year and our prudent approach to planning, taking into account the regulatory and tax environment in our markets. As always, we will continue to assess performance as the year progresses.
And if current trends and execution remain consistent, we would expect to visit our outlook after the first half of the year. Overall, we remain confident that our ability to deliver continued growth in both revenue and profitability in 2026. With that, I will now hand the call over to Marcus to walk you through the financial performance in more detail.
Marcus Arildsson: Thanks, Aviv, and hello, everyone. If we turn to Slide 10, you can see our consolidated net gaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA performance by country for the first quarter of 2026. Starting with NGR. In Q1, we delivered EUR 64.4 million, representing, as Aviv mentioned, 13% year-over-year increase compared to the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by our 2 core markets, Spain and Mexico, both which delivered solid performance. This also represented a 6% sequential increase versus an already very strong fourth quarter of 2025. In Spain specifically, NGR increased by EUR 3.6 million year-over-year to EUR 20.5 million, representing a growth of 16.4% and reflected a continued strong underlying trend. In Mexico, NGR revenue grew by EUR 4.1 million to EUR 34.6 million, an increase of 13.4% versus Q1 of last year, which further consolidates Mexico as our largest market and the key growth driver.
In other markets, which include, as you know, Colombia, Panama and the city of Buenos Aires, we generated EUR 4.4 million of net gaming revenue in the quarter, broadly stable year-over-year. As expected, growth in these markets remain more volatile and continues to represent a smaller portion of the overall group, although we’re seeing encouraging trends, both in Panama and Colombia. Looking at the last 12 months, net gaming revenue reached EUR 231.6 million, up 7.3% versus the prior period. Spain and Mexico continue to account for the vast majority of the business, together representing over 93% of LTM net gaming revenue with Mexico contributing approximately 53% and Spain, approximately 41%. This strong top line performance translated into a further step-up in profitability.
In Q1 2026, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of EUR 6 million compared to EUR 1.8 million in the first quarter of last year. Spain contributed EUR 7 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, up 27% year-over-year, reflecting continued operating leverage, while Mexico delivered EUR 2.9 million of adjusted EBITDA, also representing an increase of over 60% year-over-year as the country continues to inflict towards profitability. Our undistributed and headquarter costs were slightly lower in the quarter at EUR 5 million despite the increase in revenues. reflecting ongoing cost discipline and operating leverage as the business scales. On an LTM basis, adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 18 million compared to EUR 6.5 million a year ago, which already positions us in the upper part of our outlook range for the full year.
Overall, the first quarter shows a solid start to the year with continued revenue growth in our core markets and further improvements in profitability, consistent with the outlook Aviv mentioned earlier. Turning to our consolidated P&L on Page 11. Marketing expense was EUR 25 million in the quarter, EUR 1.2 million above Q1 of last year. But noteworthy, it was 3 percentage points lower as a percentage of NGR. The rest of our operating expenses, namely platform and content costs, gaming taxes and personnel were in line, if not below the growth in NGR, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of EUR 6 million in the quarter. This translated into an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 9% compared to 3% in the first quarter of 2025. Now, turning to Page 12. We can see that the operating trends behind our Q1 performance.
NGR increased 13% year-on-year, supported primarily by a continued expansion of our active customer base. Average monthly actives reached approximately 183,000 players in the quarter, up 14% compared to Q1 as of last year. This increase in player engagement was primarily driven by improvements in retention and reactivation of players as acquisition remained flat at around 90,000 FTDs, in line with recent quarters. The cost per acquisition increased approximately EUR 212 in the quarter. As discussed earlier, this reflects both a more competitive start to the year and a conscious shift towards higher-value channels and cohorts. Turning to Page 13 and Spain. Net gaming revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was EUR 25.5 million, up 16% versus Q1 2025 and 4% sequentially.
This was a result of a 13% increase in the number of active customers to approximately 59,000 players. With Spain being a more mature and tightly regulated market, especially in terms of advertising, we’re pleased to continue to growing our portfolio of customers while maintaining a strong profitability. Moving now to Mexico on Page 14. Net gaming revenue in the country increased by 13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reaching EUR 34.6 million. Growth in the quarter was primarily driven by a continued expansion of the active customer base, which increased by approximately 20% year-on-year to around 98,000 average monthly actives. This more than offset the lower average spend per active customer, reflecting the broader and more diversified player base we’re continuing to build in the market.
On a sequential basis, active customer levels were slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter and have continued to decline into the second quarter of 2026. This was expected and reflects the implementation of tighter promotional rules aimed at reducing the participation of bonus hunters who were taking advantage of short-term promotions. While these players had limited impact on net gaming revenue, they, so to speak, polluted our customer database and made segmentation more complex. We view this as a positive step that improves the overall quality and sustainability of our customer base as we head up into the World Cup coming up in the coming months. Overall, Mexico remains a key growth driver for Codere Online. We continue to invest in expanding our customer base, improving the product and customer experience and leveraging our scale.
At the same time, we’re being selective and disciplined in our marketing investments. For example, we have recently secured an opportunistic content partnership with a leading television broadcaster that provides brand exposure immediately following goals during football games. This has been very effective in terms of reach and visibility. And this approach reflects our focus on pursuing efficient, high-impact opportunities rather than chasing more expensive and increasingly crowded World Cup-related content that we’re currently seeing across the market. And it supports our continued focus on marketing efficiency and return on investment. Now on Page 15, looking at the balance sheet briefly. We closed the quarter with EUR 56 million of total cash on the balance sheet, of which approximately EUR 51 million was available.
As in prior quarters, our structural negative working capital position remained in line at EUR 22 million or approximately 10% of our LTM net gaming revenue and supported the cash generation we have seen in the quarter and that we expect going forward. Looking at cash flow on Page 16. We generated EUR 6.5 million of cash flow in the first quarter 2026. Please note that this quarter, we are breaking down how much available cash was generated or used by decreases or increases, respectively, in reserve cash. This was previously included within changes in working capital. Overall, we continue to see an encouraging trend, not only in delivering positive adjusted EBITDA, but also in converting most of it into cash flow. Having said that, the precise timing of certain cash flow items can impact the cash generation in any given quarter.
Although across several quarters, this tends to even out. As a result, our available cash, as discussed, was EUR 51 million at the end of March. Very briefly on Page 18. We are maintaining our 2026 net gaming and adjusted EBITDA outlook. As Aviv mentioned, we’re off to a strong start of the year, and we are comfortable in our ability to meet it. As opposed to last year, in 2026, we’re enjoying some tailwinds, for example, in the Mexican exchange rate or in the Colombian gaming tax, which is more favorable this year and is helping us grow again our top line. If these trends and our strong execution in Spain and Mexico holds into the second quarter, we would expect to revisit our outlook with our second quarter results. That’s all from my end.
I will now hand it back to Aviv for closing remarks.
Aviv Sher: Thank you, Marcus. Before we move on to the Q&A session, I would like to thank all Codere Online employees for their hard work in delivering a great start of the year. I would also like to thank the investors and analysts joining us today for their ongoing support and interest in Codere Online. With that, I will now hand the call back to the operator to open the line for questions.
Q&A Session
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Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Stantial with Stifel.
Unknown Analyst: This is [ Aidan Young ] on for Jeff Stantial. So starting off on guidance. If we look back historically, it looks like Q1 is typically one of the weakest quarters in terms of adjusted EBITDA seasonality. And then this year, you have the benefit of the World Cup coming in Q2 and Q3. So Marcus, can you help us think about the bridge from that EUR 6 million of EBITDA you generated in Q1 to the EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million for the year? Is it mostly marketing investment around the World Cup? Or how should we bridge those 2?
Marcus Arildsson: Well, our — I mean, it’s undoubtedly, we’ve come up to a very strong start during the first quarter. And our full year forecast is the EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million that we had set out in the previous call as we began this year. The World Cup — in past World Cups and in past similar events, we haven’t seen a tremendous amount of impact on NGR. We have seen an uplift, and we expect that for this year as well. We expect an uplift in activity, but with a limited impact in NGR and on the financials. So the World Cup is there. It’s going to impact a few weeks in Q2 and a few weeks in Q3. But at this stage, we don’t expect a very substantial impact on our figures.
Unknown Analyst: Great. Turning to Mexico. It looks like Stake recently entered the market. Could you update us on the competitive environment there and whether you’re seeing any upward pressure to CAC heading into the World Cup?
Aviv Sher: Well, we saw the announcements of Stake coming into the market. We didn’t see them, for example, yet on TV or on Google PPC. I’m sure they will come strong on that. But at the moment, we are not seeing any of that. Some of our competitors are still down since late last year, as you all know. But other than that, we continue our activities as usual, continue to grow, continue to grow the database and the customer base. I don’t think it has anything to any pressure on our CAC or LTV. The opposite, I think it helps us a little bit. And for us, we continue to comply with all regulations, all the taxes that we think required in Mexico to keep operating smoothly as before and to continue to deliver the results that you’re seeing.
Unknown Analyst: Great. And if I can just squeeze in one more. Can you update us on the implementation of AI into your processes? Where have you been able to see some benefits? And how should we think about that as a potential impact to the model, whether through cost mitigation or revenue-enhancing initiatives?
Aviv Sher: Listen, to be honest, at the moment in the core business, we did not implement AI. Everything else, all the supporting areas, whether it’s the last employee, everybody is using it. As a process right now, we are not using it in the core business. We don’t — we didn’t see any AI trading benefit or anything like that, that you can right now imagine or have seen in the news. We didn’t see a working product yet. We are already using it in the customer service and maybe some outbound calls. We see good results. I think we need a couple of more quarters before we can say that we found something really interesting in that area. It does support our operation in the day-to-day. I think every employee every few hours request another ChatGPT or Claude license. So it’s not yet arrived to the core of the business, but in the surrounding, we are using.
Moshe Edree: No, more than that. It’s Moshe here. We already engaged with Google Israel that they are like supporting us in implementing tools that related to Google advertising tools, and they will start a process with us about implementing their tools into our system.
Aviv Sher: But still early. I think 2 more quarters and we’ll see something substantial.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.
Unknown Analyst: This is Will on for Ryan. First, I wanted to ask on Spain. You’ve had relatively strong performance there this quarter relative to what we’ve seen in prior years. Curious if you think this trend can continue and what you’re seeing in terms of the competitive environment there?
Aviv Sher: Yes. I think in general, we — I think for the last few quarters, we are already reporting Spain to — that we see a growth, that we see good results. It’s important to say that we also see that the market itself grows a lot, at least from the regulator we saw last year a big growth in the market for the full year. And we continue to push and optimize our customer acquisition to a higher value. We continue with that. We see good success with it. We also enjoy a couple of quarters of strong technology stability, which allowed us to cruise through a few big games with good results. Also important to say in the first quarter, trading margin was favorable for us, a lot of surprises along the way. And so we also enjoy a trading margin here. But overall, we are very happy with the result in Spain. And yes, we think it will continue with this trend.
Unknown Analyst: Great. And then just a quick follow-up on Colombia. I know it’s a relatively small exposure for you. But with the removal of the 19% VAT, you’ve got a new 16% consumption tax out of that. Curious how you think of investment maybe there going forward and as well as if you’re looking into any potentially new markets?
Aviv Sher: Yes. So basically, the 16% tax allows us to continue and operate the current database that we have, which we did with, I think, very good success. We see it in the results, although it’s part of the other lines, but Colombia recovered quite nicely. Unfortunately, this current structure doesn’t allow us to really invest again into marketing, only operate and reactivate the large database that we have. We are, like everyone, I think, waiting for the results, the political results of the elections that are coming by the end of the month. And hopefully, the political environment will change there and will be more favorable for the business, and then we will be able to invest. This is how we look at it. We are very encouraged by the results of activating the database, which we thought would be harder, but actually, we did pretty well with that.
And I think if the business environment will change a little bit more or for example, when they removed completely the 19%, we were already ready to make new investments into Colombia and start considering it back as not a significant, but as a separate market, let’s call it, with a separate investment line. And hopefully, the business environment will change after the elections. And then we can grow it faster than now. Regarding other markets, currently, no plans for new markets.
Unknown Analyst: Hope it goes in your favor.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski with NOBLE Capital Markets.
Michael Kupinski: I was just wondering in terms of — this obviously was a great quarter in terms of an inflection for EBITDA. And I was just wondering, at what scale do you believe the business can consistently generate double-digit EBITDA margins? And I have a couple of follow-ups.
Marcus Arildsson: Can you repeat the question just to try to really get the gist of it?
Michael Kupinski: Yes. I was just wondering in terms of what scale do you think the business can consistently generate double-digit EBITDA margins?
Marcus Arildsson: Yes. Obviously, as you know, one of the key drivers of that is our marketing spend. The remaining cost items we have in the P&L, there are many of those like gaming taxes, platform costs, et cetera, which are quite variable in nature. And one of the most important expense line, of course, is marketing. And as you know, our strategy is to continue to grow the business, but over time, maturing into a lower percentage of NGR in terms of marketing spend. So we think to be able to get to a double-digit EBITDA margin, we need to probably be below 30% in terms of marketing as a percentage of NGR. When do we get there has to be seen. I don’t think we’re in a position to make a forecast on it, but I think that’s the way we see it.
When we start to get marketing below — with the current cost structure we have and as we’re looking forward, when we start to be able to get marketing below 30%, that’s when our EBITDA margin can start to approach 20% or maybe go above 20%, but in that range. So I think that’s sort of, I’d say how we look at it, just looking out a few periods.
Moshe Edree: I would maybe add to that, Mike, that as you know, our marketing investment is pretty much entirely discretional. So it’s a bit also of a decision that we take as a management team to sort of how much we want to keep on investing. And if the priority was at some point to deliver double-digit EBITDA, that’s something that we could do by reducing the investment. But obviously, what we are managing for is a sustainable growth in EBITDA and for that percentage to increase over time organically as relative to NDR.
Aviv Sher: I think the key here is to balance, right? We are balancing between the revenues and the EBITDA as we see fit to generate the highest company value. This is the goal here.
Michael Kupinski: Fair enough. Obviously, you have EUR 56 million in cash and no debt. And I was just wondering in terms of how management is thinking about capital allocation priorities at this point. How much cash does the management believe is necessary to support its growth? So if you could just talk a little bit about capital allocation at this point?
Moshe Edree: Okay. Just let me add something, Mike. It’s Moshe. Well, so first and foremost, as a public company, we are — we have a guidelines by the Board of Directors and our forecast based on the Board of Directors’ decision about the target and the EBITDA and the organic growth that from time to time, we are looking, if there’s anything that we do with the cash that it’s more than just marketing. Obviously, up until now, there wasn’t anything substantial that we brought to the Board. But as you know, it’s not just about invest the money in marketing, but it’s also to keep the same ratio on the CAC of the investment. And that’s what we are keen for. I mean that any additional dollars that we spend in Spain or Mexico, which is our biggest markets and the major markets, that receive the same ratio of investment versus the ROI on this investment.
And that’s how we’re managing the cash. Now although it seems that it’s quite liquid, having like EUR 50 million in cash, but it’s not still, I would say, a sufficient amount that we would do anything that just in the order of investing it. As you know, lately, we had like some buyback process that we use some of this cash. But other than that, there isn’t anything that we are looking at in terms of acquisition.
Marcus Arildsson: Maybe just to — thanks, Moshe. Maybe just to add to that. The cash we have, obviously, a very significant part of it is invested in the business. It’s working capital. As you know, we operate in 5 markets. We have a number of different payment alternatives for our customers, et cetera. And so a very substantial portion of our cash is invested in the business and it’s working capital, and it’s not sort of say, readily, readily available. I mean it’s invested in the business, and it’s — and there is — we are generating cash, as you know. So net, we’re adding to our cash as we speak. So that’s great news that we have turned the corner and we’re adding to our position. And beyond the comments that Moshe mentioned, of course, we will look at and we are looking at certain expansion opportunities.
If and when opportunities come around for either further investments in our current markets, we will look at that, and we can also contemplate entry into other markets. But at this time, I think the important piece is to think about that, yes, we are generating cash. Two, most of the cash today is invested in the business and as working capital. But as the quarters go by, we will amass a little bit more quarter or a little bit more cash. And one of the valves that we have to use that is to return to shareholders through our buyback. And I think that’s the position we’re in at this stage.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Guillermo Lancha, Director of Investor Relations and Communications, for closing remarks.
Guillermo Lancha: Thanks, Derek. If there are no further questions, I guess we will leave it here. If anyone has any follow-ups, you know where to reach us. And if not, we will be talking again with our Q2 results by the end of July. Thanks, everyone, for joining.
Aviv Sher: Thank you.
Guillermo Lancha: Thank you, Mr. CEO.
Operator: This concludes today’s call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
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