Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported a 36% year-over-year jump in April sales from its Shanghai factory and filed a new Roadster trademark, but Polymarket bettors still aren’t buying the bull case.
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory produced 79,478 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in April, up 35.96% year-over-year. The figure counts cars shipped from the factory to dealers for sale within mainland China and for export to overseas markets.
Tesla recently filed a new trademark for a bespoke triangular Roadster badge, the latest of three Roadster filings this year, according to Electrek.
The Roadster is Tesla’s long-promised second-generation electric supercar, first shown as a prototype in 2017 with a $200,000 starting price and a $250,000 Founders Series tier. Production has been pushed back at least eight times since.
On the Q1 earnings call, Musk said Tesla “may be able to debut that in a month or so” but tempered expectations. “I don’t think it moves the needle massively from a revenue standpoint, but it is very cool.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tried to cancel his $45,000 Roadster reservation on X last October, prompting Musk to fire back: “You stole a nonprofit.” Musk’s lawsuit against Altman over OpenAI’s for-profit conversion is set to go to trial next year.
Despite the catalysts, prediction market traders are pricing in a modest Tesla recovery, not a blowout.
On Polymarket’s Q2 deliveries market, traders give a combined 58% probability to deliveries landing between 375,000 and 450,000 vehicles, a bounce from Q1’s 358,023, but well short of a record.
The longer-term narrative trades are more skeptical. A California Robotaxi launch by June 30 carries 11% odds. An Optimus public sale by the same date sits at 2%.
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman maintains a $145 price target on TSLA, the most bearish on the Street. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is at the other extreme with $600, calling 2026 a “monster year” for FSD and Cybercab. Consensus sits near $410.
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