U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping look at each other during their meeting in Busan on Oct. 30 last year. Reuters-Yonhap
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a pivotal U.S.-China summit in Beijing on November 14-15 (local time). The two sides are expected to hold wide-ranging discussions covering not only economic issues such as tariffs, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced semiconductor export controls, and rare earths, but also security matters including Iran, Taiwan, and nuclear weapons. Experts believe that with Trump facing midterm elections in November and Xi approaching his fourth term next year, both leaders want a “period of strategic stability” and could produce meaningful results, even if not a sweeping agreement. Below are the key watch points for the U.S.-China summit.
① Will the Iran War End?
The foremost interest is whether progress signals will emerge regarding ending the U.S.-Iran war. Trump is expected to ask China, Iran’s “backer,” to step in and persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear development program. From China’s perspective, having imported 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a blow, and instability in the Middle East — a major export market — is also unwelcome news. As such, China may press Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and come to the negotiating table.
However, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Beijing and sided with Iran, stating that “Iran has a legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.” This stance differs somewhat from the United States, which is strongly pushing Iran to abandon its nuclear program, making the outcome of the U.S.-China summit discussions all the more noteworthy.
② Will a U.S.-China Trade Committee Be Launched?… China’s Midterm Election “Gift” to Trump Watched
Another watch point is whether Xi will pledge to make large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans, beef, and Boeing aircraft ahead of the midterm elections. Securing such commitments would allow Trump to win favor with his core supporters — American farmers and blue-collar workers. Remarks on China’s rare earth exports also warrant attention. After Trump sharply raised tariffs on China, Beijing imposed export controls on rare earths.
Whether a U.S.-China “trade committee” will be established is also a point of interest. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer has emphasized the need for a trade committee to systematically address trade imbalance issues between the U.S. and China, including tariffs and methods for designating priority import and export items. If successfully launched, it would mean U.S.-China trade is discussed within a formal framework, and related uncertainties are expected to be reduced to some extent.
③ Will BYD’s U.S. Investment Be Allowed?… Investment Committee Launch Also Watched
Spencer Feingold, senior editor at the World Economic Forum (WEF), said, “The issue of Chinese automakers entering the U.S. market will also be discussed,” adding, “This includes the entry of major Chinese EV manufacturers such as BYD.”
Indeed, Trump said at an event in January, “If foreign automakers build factories in the U.S. and hire you and your friends, that’s a good thing,” adding, “Let China in, let Japan in.” However, opposition to easing regulations on Chinese automakers has recently grown louder in the U.S. Congress, making its realization uncertain.
Attention is also focused on whether an investment committee will be established to oversee bilateral investment issues. A former senior U.S. government official recently predicted at a roundtable in Washington, D.C., that “although there have long been concerns, there could also be discussions on supporting Chinese investment in the United States.” While concerns have been high that Chinese capital investment in the U.S. could threaten national security, there is speculation that this summit could open the door to such discussions.
④ Will Trump Shift from “Does Not Support Taiwan Independence” to “Opposes” It?
On the Taiwan issue, China is expected to demand a shift in the U.S. position and restrictions on arms exports to Taiwan. In a phone call with Trump in February, Xi said, “Taiwan is the most important issue in U.S.-China relations,” adding, “The issue of arms sales to Taiwan must be handled with caution.” Traditionally, the U.S. has stated that it “does not support Taiwan independence,” but China may want this shifted to “the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence.”
⑤ AI, Nuclear, North Korea Remarks in Focus
The U.S. and China are engaged in a fierce speed race in the AI field. Naturally, discussions on the safe use of AI have been pushed to the back burner, but the two sides could begin efforts to control the negative use of AI by concluding a working-level agreement, even if only symbolically. Kyle Chan of the Brookings Institution said, “They could start by opening formal communication channels on AI risks, developing non-binding safety guidelines, and sharing limited information on AI safety incidents.”
Trump has consistently emphasized the need for a new nuclear arms control regime that includes China, arguing that a nuclear arms control system with Russia that excludes China is meaningless, and discussions on this could also take place. In addition, he is expected to seek opinions on dialogue with North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un.
⑥ Will a U.S.-China Joint Statement and a Promise of Xi’s Return Visit Emerge?
At the Busan summit last October, the U.S. and Chinese leaders only issued separate statements on the outcomes and did not release a joint statement. If a joint statement emerges this time, it can be assessed as a successful summit in which the two sides reached a certain level of consensus. In addition, with the possibility raised that the two sides may meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, in November and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, U.S., in December, attention is also focused on whether Xi will promise to visit the United States before then.
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