U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping look at each other during their meeting in Busan on Oct. 30 last year. REUTERS-Yonhap
U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to China for two days beginning Nov. 14 to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, marking the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China in nine years. The summit is expected to put major agenda items on the table, including ending the U.S.-Iran war, tariffs, controls on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), and the Taiwan issue. The possibility of a surprise agreement, such as allowing Chinese automakers to enter the U.S. market, cannot be ruled out.
Major foreign media outlets and experts said on Monday that they are watching whether the summit will serve as the first step toward establishing an institutional mechanism to prevent a recurrence of the U.S.-China trade war. That is why attention is focused on whether the two countries will agree to set up a trade commission. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has also emphasized the need for a trade commission that would systematically address trade imbalances, including tariffs and the designation of priority items for imports and exports. The message is interpreted as a call to resolve the fundamental reasons that led the Trump administration, which waged a trade war with China during its first term, to once again take aim at China shortly after the launch of its second term last year.
Attention is also focused on whether an investment commission will be established to oversee investment issues between the two countries. A former senior U.S. government official recently told a press briefing, “Although there have long been concerns, there could also be discussions on ways to support Chinese investment in the United States.”
If such trade-easing measures are exchanged, Xi could present Trump, who faces midterm elections in November, with a “gift” of large-scale purchases of American soybeans, beef and Boeing aircraft. There is also a possibility of a forward-looking announcement that would partially open the door for Chinese electric vehicles to enter the U.S. market. On this point, Spencer Feingold, a senior editor at the World Economic Forum (WEF), and others noted, “The issue of Chinese automakers entering the U.S. market could also be discussed,” adding, “This includes the entry of major Chinese EV manufacturers such as BYD.” In fact, Trump said at a Detroit Economic Club event in January, “It would be a good thing if foreign automakers build factories in the U.S. and hire Americans,” adding, “Let’s let China in, let’s let Japan in.” However, growing opposition in the U.S. Congress to easing regulations on Chinese automakers is a variable.
Another key question is how much the two sides can narrow their differences on “red line” agenda items on which neither can concede. The Taiwan issue is a representative example. China is expected to demand a change in the U.S. position on Taiwan and restrictions on arms exports to the island. Traditionally, the U.S. has stated that it “does not support Taiwan independence,” but China may want this to be changed to “the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence.”
Another point of interest is how far the U.S. and China, which are engaged in a hegemonic rivalry, can reach agreement on AI and other advanced technologies. Kyle Chan of the Brookings Institution said, “The U.S. and China could begin by opening official communication channels on AI risks, developing non-binding safety guidelines, and sharing limited information on AI safety incidents.”