The outcome of the U.S. war with Iran and the future status of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. But thanks to a carefully placed Trump administration leak, we do now know what it wants in a deal, including a moratorium on nuclear enrichment and an end to the blockade of the crucial oil waterway. Let’s say that this time, against all odds, the men who rule Tehran just say “yes” to it all — would this deal have been worth the war?
The short answer is no. Yet this is not an argument won by knockout, rather by a system of points that have different weights for the various protagonists. And the conclusion could also evolve with hindsight, because Iran will change as a result of this conflict — the only question is how. Any outcome is possible once peace returns, from a more aggressive and empowered Islamic Republic, to regime collapse.
The biggest, unarguable reason to think the U.S. proposal as reported would fail to justify the war is that it will still have created a problem that would not otherwise have existed: Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. This is not an issue that can be fixed just by ending the current blockades. The ability to toll and permit offers the regime in Tehran an enormous potential source of funding and geopolitical leverage that will — like its nuclear program — now require constant management. That remains true whether the problem is addressed through negotiations, further conflict or the construction of additional bypass pipelines across the Arab Gulf states.