Greece at 11/4 are the most credible challenger to Finland’s dominance tonight.
Akylas performs “Ferto” in the fourth slot, a position that Eurovision analysts have historically regarded as one of the stronger draw positions, giving an act enough of the show’s early momentum without the challenge of opening proceedings.
Greece have consistently performed well in Eurovision semi-finals, with their passionate diaspora vote and loyal jury support across southern Europe giving them a structural advantage that the market has clearly priced in.
At 26.7% implied probability, “Ferto” does not need to be extraordinary tonight, it simply needs to be good enough, and Greece’s Eurovision pedigree suggests it will be.
Israel at 9/2 is the most politically loaded entry in tonight’s semi-final, performing tenth with Noam Bettan’s “Michelle.”
Israel’s presence in Eurovision 2026 has been one of the defining controversies of this year’s competition, with five broadcasters, including Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain, opting not to participate in protest at their inclusion.