At some point over the past year, the central question in Canadian politics changed.
It was no longer simply, “Are you better off?” or “Is it time for change?” But another question has moved closer to the centre of the political conversation: who do you trust to manage risk?
That is the question Mark Carney is winning right now.
Our latest poll finds the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 10 points and the federal government’s approval rating at a new high. On its own, that is remarkable. A Liberal government, after a decade of Liberal government, should not easily find itself with that kind of advantage in a country still frustrated by affordability, housing, and economic insecurity. 55% of Canadians think the Carney government represents a clear break from the Trudeau government. That perceptions is a major factor in why those other numbers are so high.
But the affinity we see for Prime Minister Carney and his government is not blind confidence. But I don’t think it’s because everyone really understands the specifics of what the government’s plan is.
I think it’s something different. It is a trust premium.
A large enough share of Canadians have decided, at least for now, that Carney probably (key word) knows what he is doing on the economy, deficits, debt, trade, and the broader question of Canada’s place in a much more dangerous world. They are giving him room to act, and they are reserving the right to judge him on what happens next.
That is the story in some new polling I just completed last week.
The numbers behind the premium
Asked how much confidence they have that the Carney government is making the tough choices needed to get Canada’s deficit and debt under control, 58% of Canadians express confidence. Thirty-eight percent are on the other side: 16% say they do not have much confidence and 22% say they have no confidence at all. Five percent are not sure.
This represents a meaningful margin on exactly the kind of issue that has historically been more comfortable terrain for Conservatives than Liberals.
The broader economic question tells the same story. Asked whether Canada’s economic situation under the Carney government, things like business investment, job creation, and long-term growth prospects, is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction, 55% say right direction.