Five Ts are shaping the Trump–Xi meeting in Beijing. They are tariffs, trade, Taiwan, tech and Tehran, all now tightly linked as bargaining chips in a reset of US–China relations
The mood around President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit on Wednesday is very different from his earlier trips.
The “Busan Truce” in late 2025 may have offered a
temporary pause in tensions, but as Trump sits down with Xi Jinping, five big “Ts” are still shaping both the friction and the future of the world’s most important bilateral relationship.
1. Tariff trap
The shadow of the “145 per cent Threat” remains the most potent weapon in Trump’s arsenal.
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Following his 2024 campaign promises, the administration pushed for
massive across-the-board tariffs on Chinese goods, currently hovering at a baseline of 60 per cent for many sectors.
While the Busan agreement temporarily froze these hikes, the US uses them as a “compliance hammer” to ensure China meets its purchasing quotas.
For President Xi, the primary goal of this summit is to secure a watertight rollback, as the high cost of exports continues to strain a Chinese economy already struggling with a cooling property market and
ageing workforce.
2. The trade tug-of-war
Trade, meanwhile, is no longer just about deficits and balance sheets. It has evolved into a strategic bout over critical resources.
To put it in perspective, the US is pressing China to honour the “Phase Two” purchase agreements, particularly in soybeans, corn, and Boeing aircraft. But Beijing has countered with equal force, tightening restrictions on
rare earth mineral exports, materials that sit at the centre of American defence systems and electric vehicle production.
In effect, this has created a situation where both countries depend on each other so much that if one pushes too hard, it could break global supply chains.
3. The Taiwan flashpoint
Taiwan is still the most sensitive issue, with military spending hitting record highs and tensions spilling into open verbal fire.
The US recently greenlit an $11 billion
arms package for Taipei, the largest in history, while simultaneously pressuring the island to move more of its high-end semiconductor manufacturing to American soil to mitigate risk.
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Beijing is also expected to push the US to change its wording on Taiwan from “not supporting” independence to clearly “opposing” it. The Trump administration may consider this demand while negotiating gains in other areas.
4. The tech cold war
The fight for control over computing power has moved from smartphones to computer chips and AI systems, and is now a key area of tech competition.
The US has maintained a strict blockade on
advanced chipmaking equipment, specifically targeting China’s domestic giants like Hua Hong. Interestingly, a new frontier of “AI Safety” has emerged as a rare area of potential cooperation.
Both nations are increasingly wary of autonomous military AI systems that could escape human control, leading to high-level discussions on “red lines” for artificial intelligence that would prevent accidental escalation during regional tensions.
5. The Tehran wildcard
Unlike previous summits, the crisis in Tehran has now become a bargaining chip.
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked and oil prices rising toward $105 a barrel, the US is starting to feel the pinch of an energy crunch from West Asia.
China, meanwhile, remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil and still maintains working ties with Tehran. That leaves Trump heading to Beijing in search of a
possible mediator role for Xi. In turn, Xi gains leverage and could float the idea of a “peace corridor” in the Gulf, but likely only if Washington softens its stance on the other four Ts.
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First Published:
May 12, 2026, 17:21 IST
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