Romania’s economy contracts by 1.7% in Q1 as growth forecasts remain weak

Romania’s economy fell by 1.7% in the first three months of the year on the unadjusted series, compared with the same quarter of 2025, and by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product fell by 1.7% in January-March 2026 on the unadjusted series and by 1.5% on the seasonally adjusted series compared with the same quarter of 2025.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026.

“The seasonally adjusted series was recalculated by including the estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2026, with volume indices revised compared with the second provisional version of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025, published in press release no. 87 of 9 April 2026,” the INS said in a statement.

As a result, the figures for the first quarter of 2025, compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, were revised from 99.5% to 99.8%; the figures for the second quarter of 2025, compared with the first quarter of 2025, were revised from 101.0% to 100.7%; the figures for the third quarter of 2025, compared with the second quarter of 2025, were revised from 99.9% to 100.0%, while the figures for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with the third quarter of 2025, were revised from 98.2% to 98.0%.

“Seasonally adjusted series are recalculated quarterly in line with European practice,” the INS said.

Romania’s economy grew by 0.7% in real terms last year compared with 2024, but in the final quarter of 2025 gross domestic product was 1.8% lower than in the previous quarter, according to data provided by the INS in April.

The National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting estimated in its autumn forecast that the economy would grow by 1% in 2026, slightly below the 1.2% estimate included in last summer’s forecast.

The European Commission estimated Romania’s GDP growth at 1.1% in 2026, while the World Bank significantly revised its forecast for the Romanian economy from 1.3% in January to 0.5%. The International Monetary Fund also lowered its estimate for Romania’s economic growth this year to 0.7%, from the 1.4% forecast in October, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.