Farmers across the Midwest are entering planting season under mounting financial pressure, as the Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer prices — deepening an agricultural downturn that some say is the worst since the crisis of the 1980s.
Why it matters: Rising fuel and fertilizer costs threaten to push more family farms out of business, drive up food prices and further strain rural economies already battered by trade disruptions, inflation and extreme weather.
The big picture: Mark Mueller — a northeast Iowa farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association — tells Axios that the current landscape is more challenging than at any time since the 1980s farm crisis, when interest rates soared and exports plunged, triggering agricultural bank failures.
The stresses are showing, with rising bankruptcies and lenders becoming more reluctant to provide farmers with operational loans.
“There’s going to be fewer farmers next year than there is this year,” Mueller says.
Zoom in: Farmers are grappling with a confluence of forces, including:
Skyrocketing energy prices triggered by President Trump’s Iran war, which led to the shuttering of Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for fossil fuels.
Spiking fertilizer prices and shortages after the Iranians blocked shipments through the strait.
Disrupted export markets tied to Trump’s tariffs and Chinese import restrictions.
Global drought and other weather pressures, including climate change.
What they’re saying: “What makes this moment particularly hard is that farmers can’t pivot quickly,” says Cornell University agricultural economist Wendong Zhang.
“Farmers have some tools, but none are quick fixes.”
Zoom in: The crisis is hitting farmers hard across the country.
In Arkansas, rising energy prices and fertilizer costs are exerting pressure on farmers who were already reaping lower prices for their crops.
In Ohio, first-generation farmer Michael Kilpatrick said his fuel bills are up from $400 to $700, and container costs have risen 30%: “If prices go up, we’re eating that difference.”
In Iowa, farmers are dealing with a decline in soybean prices from $13–$15 to around $10 per bushel, as exports to China have fallen due to trade tensions.
In Minnesota, calls to the state’s farm and rural issues mental health line are climbing. The helpline logged 314 calls in fiscal year 2025 — the most in five years — and has already topped 279 in the first nine months of the current fiscal year.
Across the country, the sudden spike in diesel and fertilizer prices is particularly problematic — with much of it attributable to the strait’s shutdown.
For consumers, the crisis is especially noticeable for products like beef.
The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in decades, largely due to global drought, per USDA data.
Ground beef averaged about $6.90 per pound in April — roughly 19% higher than a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Lower-income households are “doubly exposed,” says Zhang, who is also part of the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers. Lower earners already spend a larger share of their budget on food, and now have less support from SNAP following cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill, he noted.
Follow the money: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on April 28 outlined a plan to deliver relief, including $900 million in grant funding for independent fertilizer companies, permit streamlining, and support for legislation to lower fertilizer costs.
That comes after Trump announced an $11 billion “bridge payment” to farmers of row crops as they dealt with tariffs and falling crop prices.
About $9.7 billion of that money has been disbursed to 510,520 applicants, with 42% going to corn growers and 24% going to soybean farmers, according to the USDA.
But “additional federal or congressional support related to higher oil prices has been limited” for the ag sector, says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Asset Management.
What we’re watching: Trump said China’s Xi Jinping agreed to buy “billions of dollars” worth of soybeans during their summit this week but no specific deals have been announced.
The bottom line: “When farmers face supply shortages or price increases, those impacts ripple through the entire food chain,” Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, told Trump in a recent letter.
Contributing Axios reporters: Worth Sparkman in NW Arkansas, Monica Eng in Chicago, Casey Weldon in Cincinnati, Jason Clayworth in Des Moines, Arika Herron in Indianapolis, Torey Van Oot in the Twin Cities, and Kelly Tyko in Florida.