Indian stock market: Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 ended their two-session winning streak on Friday, May 15, amid profit booking triggered by weak global market sentiment, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the rupee slipping to a fresh record low against the US dollar.
The Sensex declined 161 points, or 0.21%, to close at 75,237.99, while the Nifty 50 dropped 46 points, or 0.19%, to settle at 23,643.50.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, markets in the coming week are expected to remain highly volatile and intensely headline-driven, with investor sentiment continuing to hinge on developments surrounding the ongoing US–Iran conflict, diplomatic negotiations and movements in global energy markets.
“The broader mood remains cautious, as investors weigh the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough against the growing risk of a prolonged geopolitical and energy-driven disruption,” Ponmudi said.
He noted that markets are likely to remain extremely sensitive to any developments linked to the Strait of Hormuz, given its critical importance to global energy supply chains.
“Any credible diplomatic progress or easing in tensions could trigger short-covering rallies across equities, support emerging market sentiment and help moderate crude oil prices. Conversely, any renewed escalation, disruption to shipping routes or deterioration in negotiations could rapidly revive risk-off positioning, intensify volatility and place renewed pressure on equities, currencies and commodities globally,” he added.
As the war and the ensuing negotiations near the three-month mark since the conflict began, the deadlock remains unresolved. In the latest development, Iran announced that it will soon unveil a proposal for managing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Responding to the move, Donald Trump warned that Iran would face serious consequences if it refused to move forward with a peace agreement.
Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the ceasefire — in effect since April — by another 45 days and resume discussions on a political resolution. However, tensions across West Asia have escalated further as clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continue.
Oil prices surged more than 3% on Friday after remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister weakened expectations of a potential agreement to halt ship attacks and seizures near the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures settled at $109.26 per barrel, rising $3.54, or 3.35%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended at $105.42 per barrel, up $4.25, or 4.2%.
For the week, Brent crude advanced 7.84%, while WTI gained 10.48%, amid uncertainty surrounding the fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict.
“Participants will closely monitor developments in the ongoing US–Iran conflict and their implications for crude oil prices, inflation, and global risk sentiment. Movements in energy markets and the rupee will continue to influence near-term market direction,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.
As the earnings season enters the sixth week, more than 500 companies will release their financial results for the quarter ended on March 21, 2026, in the coming week.
Bharat Electronics (BEL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL, Lenskart Solutions, Life Insurance Corporation of India, and FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) are among the marquee companies to declare their Q4 results 2026 next week.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) or foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹27,177 crore in the secondary market till the 16th of this month, taking their total secondary market selloff in 2026 so far to ₹2,31,486 crore.
Meanwhile, total investments through the primary market during the year have stood at ₹12,468 crore. The cumulative FPI selling this year has already surpassed the total outflows recorded last year.
“This continued selling pressure by FPIs, coupled with a widening current account deficit, has significantly weighed on the rupee. So long as FPIs continue to sell and the crude price remains elevated, the rupee is likely to weaken further. The trend of AI companies attracting capital flows from all over the world is also continuing, with the flight of capital from countries like India, which are AI laggards. This trend will change when the AI trade, which is already in bubble territory, ends,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
The Indian rupee plunged past the 96-per-dollar level on Friday before ending at a record low of 95.81 against the US currency, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and mounting inflation concerns.
The rupee has declined more than 6% so far this year and has weakened nearly 2% over the last six trading sessions, as escalating risks surrounding the Iran conflict drove crude oil prices higher.
Meanwhile, the dollar index strengthened after robust US retail sales figures and steady labour market data dampened hopes of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
“”Rupee traded weak by 11 paise near 95.95 after slipping below the 96.00 mark intraday, pressured by rising crude oil prices, which continue to weigh on import costs and inflation concerns. Market participants remain cautious amid fears that elevated crude prices may persist for a longer duration despite government measures to control volatility. Near-term rupee range is expected between 95.55–96.25,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
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