On May 28, 2026, crude oil markets were relatively calm after the U.S.-Iran conditional ceasefire, now more than eight weeks old, continued and the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz began to gradually resume. The agreement has largely removed the acute geopolitical uncertainty that was responsible for a volatile period in March and early April and market participants can now turn their attention towards other more conventional factors.
The markets are now reflecting a more balanced oil scenario. U.S. production, OPEC+ output and repairs in some areas in the Gulf are all working to support the market and restore some supply, however complete normalization has yet to happen. Some increase in Asian demand has been seen following the initial spike in oil prices but consumption in the emerging world has been slower to pick up again.