Current state of affairs | Nature Climate Change

Heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures were in the headlines in May — South Asia experienced pre-monsoon high temperatures (up to 47 °C in India), while Europe experienced peak summer temperatures before summer had officially arrived. These events are being reported alongside stories on large heat accumulation in the eastern Pacific Ocean and forecasts for an El Niño event later this year. There are predictions and concerns that it will be a ‘super’ event. Whether that comes to be is still uncertain; the 2023 El Niño event was predicted to be strong, but did not reach the strength expected. However, regardless of the strength of the forthcoming event, against the warmer and more volatile background climate, and other global events such as large-scale conflicts, the impacts from the event could be devastating.

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Beyond this forthcoming event, the impacts of climate change are already being felt, including effects on the economy. A recent synthesis report1 finds that macroeconomic effects are hard to quantify but are growing rapidly, with people in low- and lower-middle-income countries already 4–12% poorer in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from temperature changes and sea-level rise, and projections of decreases in income for the average person of 3–15% by 2050. Numbers like this make the case for mitigation and adaption to minimize impacts, and it is important that governments act now to best prepare.

While nations all work on their own scale, international planning centres around the annual climate COP, held late in the year. This year will see the first climate COP with two countries sharing responsibility of the presidency — Türkiye as the host nation, with the event being held in Antalya, and president-designate, while Australia takes the role of president of negotiations. The nominated presidents have released a joint statement on their ambitions for the event, with a partnering of Australia with Pacific Island nations and the appointment of three Pacific Climate Envoys — these nations are at the forefront of climate impacts and the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) were the driving force in the shift in ambition from limiting warming to 2 °C to 1.5 °C in the Paris negotiations. The statement also includes a commitment to strengthening confidence in the UN climate process to deliver outcomes (https://go.nature.com/4dEVFP2).

There have been criticisms of the ability of climate COPs to achieve tangible outcomes, with consensus from all member states required for adoption, which results in tempered proposals to accommodate the willingness and ambition of all. Alongside the climate COP process, the UN General Assembly, in May, voted — 141 in favour, 8 opposed and 28 abstentions — to adopt the International Court of Justice’s Advisory Opinion on states’ obligations to act to avoid damage to the environment and climate (https://docs.un.org/en/A/80/L.65). This firmly places responsibility onto nations to mitigate emissions — through high-ambition nationally determined contributions as part of the Paris Agreement. Only time will tell what impact this vote will have on nations’ climate commitments.

Some nations are already looking at ways to collaborate to advance climate action and mitigation. In late April, the first conference of ‘Transitioning away from fossil fuels’ (https://transitionawayconference.com/home) was held in Santa Marta, Colombia. Co-chaired by the Colombian and The Netherlands governments, it brought together committed nations, regional governments and stakeholders to identify and implement pathways for creating sustainable societies and economies. With the second event scheduled for 2027, this is something to keep an eye on to see how it develops and if it influences the discussions at climate COP31, as well as future events.

In the background to these international discussions, the second draft of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now out for review by both experts and governments, with the final report due in March 2027. And author groups for the various working groups of the Seventh Assessment Report have gathered in recent months to progress their draft contributions.

In an uncertain world, there are glimmers of progress. We have to remember that the steps taken so far, even if seen as not enough, have shifted the trajectory, and we have to keep the pressure on to move things further ahead.