New Poll Shows James Talarico’s Promise in Texas

James Talarico in Houston, Texas, on May 27.
Photo: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images

Last month, Texas attorney general Ken Paxton sailed to victory over long-standing incumbent John Cornyn to secure the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, a win ensured by his late-stage endorsement from President Donald Trump. But a double-digit victory in the runoff does not matter much for Paxton’s prospects in the much tougher general election in front of him.

A newly released poll conducted by the Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service and the Siena Research Institute found Democrat James Talarico with a slight lead over Paxton, 47 percent to 44 percent, well within the poll’s four-point margin of error. Only 6 percent of voters said they were undecided. The findings echoed a Slingshot Strategies poll released following the Republican primary last month, which also found Talarico leading Paxton 47 percent to 44 percent.

The Texas A&M survey also examined the candidates’ favorability among voters, and the findings were stark. When asked about the scandal-scarred Paxton, 54 percent of voters said they had an unfavorable opinion of the attorney general compared to 34 percent favorable. Paxton received much higher marks among Republicans with 62 percent viewing him favorably and, unsurprisingly, was seen negatively by Democrats, with 86 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

By contrast, 41 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Talarico compared to 34 percent unfavorable. The poll surveyed 807 likely Texas voters from June 1 to June 4. While a lot can change between now and November, Talarico’s position is providing a glimmer of hope that a Democrat could potentially be victorious in Texas. Famously, the state hasn’t elected a Democrat to a statewide position since 1994, a drought that spans three decades and the bulk of 37-year-old Talarico’s lifetime. Texas Democrats saw a similar potential in Beto O’Rourke, a then-congressman who sought to challenge Republican senator Ted Cruz for his seat in 2018. O’Rourke, who largely trailed his opponent in the polls unlike Talarico, ultimately lost to Cruz by just under three points.

The new survey also showed a surprisingly close match-up in Texas’s gubernatorial race. Republican governor Greg Abbott, who is seeking a historic fourth term in office, received 49 percent over Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa’s 44 percent. Five percent said they were undecided. Voters were asked directly about their views on Abbott’s performance as governor. Among respondents, 49 percent said they approved, either strongly or somewhat, of the job the governor has done in the role while another 49 percent said they disapproved, with 39 percent specifically saying they strongly disapproved of Abbott.

The poll comes after Talarico received perhaps the most curious endorsement of this year’s election cycle. On Monday, Dan Cogdell, the Houston-based attorney who represented Paxton during both his impeachment trial and his nearly decade-long securities-fraud case, announced that he was supporting Talarico for the Senate over his longtime client, telling NOTUS that Paxton “has lost sight of his core mission, which is to represent the people of Texas.”

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