Non-OPEC+ supply increases (which includes resilient U.S. oil production), and gradual resumption of oil exports from Persian Gulf producers are likely the key to normalizing oil supply conditions. Market analysts expect that crude exports could resume gradually, potentially extending into 2027. With U.S. refinery utilization remaining robust, U.S. crude oil stockpiles remain lower than usual for this time of year. With some oil product demand softer than expected, U.S. oil fundamentals remain supported for now.
On the other hand, natural gas market fundamentals look like they could remain plentiful for the foreseeable future. U.S. natural gas production remains near record highs and is supported by higher associated gas volumes from the oil sector. According to EIA, natural gas production forecasts have been raised for 2026. Storage builds have remained above average throughout 2026 and the cooler weather outlooks could keep natural gas power sector demand weak for now. U.S. LNG exports are increasing, but overall supply growth could still be greater than overall consumption growth. Overall natural gas balances should remain plentiful in 2026.
Natural Gas Futures Steady at $3.082 – Blue Channel Retest on 2h