Florida TaxWatch is forecasting the state’s economic and population growth will slow in the next decade.

The analysis published this month found there are challenging economic headwinds making it difficult for the Sunshine State to maintain strong economic expansion witnessed in recent years. Gross domestic product (GDP) is almost certain to see some sluggish phases, especially when considering the job market.

“GDP growth, while taking a hit next year, is expected to stay strong and greatly outpace the rest of the nation through 2030; however, the labor market is expected to take a hit, reflected in the changes to the unemployment and income growth rate,” the report found.

The unemployment rate has already increased every month this year, rising to 4.8% in April according to FloridaCommerce, the state’s economic development bureau. That’s higher than the national rate of 4.3%.

While TaxWatch projects the population of Florida will increase, the rate of growth will slow in the next 10 years. On net, Florida now has 895 more people moving to the state per day than those leaving. TaxWatch projects that will fall to a net of 689 over the next decade.

“While Florida entered 2026 with strong growth trends, ranking number one in terms of economic strength, Florida TaxWatch continues to question whether Florida’s impressive rate of economic growth is sustainable over the next several years,” said Jeff Kottkamp, CEO and President of TaxWatch.

The economic forecast was part of the watchdog group’s quarterly analysis of factors influencing the state economy. The report acknowledged that the full brunt of the economic impact from the war with Iran is to be determined. But there were some positive signs.

“Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years,” Kottkamp said.

“Overall, Florida’s economic outlook, while hampered by current global events, still reflects some of the signs for optimism it gleamed at the end of 2025.”

Florida’s economy grew to $1.87 trillion in 2025 and due to robust projected population growth in 2026, expansion should continue into the coming years. The report also found that if Florida were a nation, its economic output would place it as 13th in the world.

The analysis also found Florida’s population, currently about 23 million people, is projected to grow by about 2.3 million people by 2035.