Published summaries of how these stations contributed to weather and climate knowledge show an impressive list. The stations have given information to help study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — a huge global temperature conveyor belt. On the Pacific coast, the stations monitored low-oxygen zones and ocean acidification in real time. And in the North Pacific, the monitors detected changes in deep subsurface conditions that eluded satellites. The monitors’ information helped scientists track deep thermal patterns of deadly marine heatwaves.
But does this scaling back of the ocean monitoring network matter to producers in the Plains and Midwest? Two state climatologists said that any loss of ocean information has a negative ripple effect.
“The oceans have a HUGE influence on our weather from daily to decadal timescales,” Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford said in an email. “We only need to look to all of the coverage of the impending El Nino to know that … ocean temperatures and salinity affect temperature and precipitation patterns in the Midwest in every season.”
He noted that society may know more about deep space than it does about the deep oceans. “Dismantling this observation system would further reduce data for weather and climate forecasts, which could make these forecasts less skillful, especially seasonal forecasts like those for El Nino.”
Justin Glisan, state climatologist of Iowa, emphasized that forecast model performance could be hindered by the gaps in data coverage as instruments are removed from their sites in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. After all, their contributions have gone on for the past 10 years.
“The loss of any observational network, particularly those used to monitor the climate system, will have a significant impact because a reduction of data inputs increases numerical uncertainty in climate models,” Glisan said in an email.
“For example, the substantial reduction in meteorological observations from ship and airline traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic affected short-term forecasts negatively.” Glisan also pointed to variable storm intensities as a feature which calls for robust information. “As precipitation becomes more variable during the growing season, for example, we need more tools in the toolbelt to help our farmers and producers better understand what will happen seasonally, but also several years out,” he said.
A prominent example of intensive marine heatwave impact occurred just five years ago. In 2021, a stationary high-pressure ridge brought record heat and extensive agricultural damage to farms and ranches in the northwestern U.S. Ocean information on that heat wave was detected by the sensors in the North Pacific which are on track to be removed.
More on the forecast for the 2026 El Nino is available here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com
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