The real reason Trump wants to crack down on California’s elections

There’s been no shortage of musings over the past several weeks about how California conducts its elections. But now that the dust has settled, an important fact has emerged that people seem far less interested in: California had the second-highest voter turnout (40%) of any state that has held a primary so far this year. 

The state with the highest turnout: Oregon (41%), which, like California, mails a ballot to every voter. 

“Their elections are a fraud; their mail-in votes are a fraud,” President Donald Trump said on Fox News days after California’s June 2 primary. “You know, they don’t have voting booths. Everything’s by mail.”

California does, in fact, have voting booths. In 2024, 3.1 million Californians cast ballots at voting booths, representing 19% of the total. 

The subtext here is not hard to read. Trump wants fewer people to vote, especially in a state like California where there are twice as many Democrats as Republicans. Mail voting means more people vote. 

In March, Trump signed an executive order ordering the U.S. Postal Service not to deliver mail-in ballots unless states turn over their voter rolls, a demand rejected by numerous courts. The administration is backing a Republican-led effort that’s currently before the Supreme Court and would overturn a Mississippi law that allows officials to accept mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. That would have a massive impact on California — but also on Republican-led states with similar policies. Ultimately, attacking vote-by-mail could backfire.

Eight states — California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington — have all-mail elections, in which every registered voter is mailed a ballot. Six of them are traditionally blue states. Utah is a Republican stronghold, and Nevada is a swing state. Far more states allow voters to opt in to mail voting.

A 2022 Election Law Journal study found that “states with greater usage of mail voting experience higher overall voter turnout.”

A 2024 University of Chicago summary of research found that “Universal vote-by-mail programs tend to increase turnout, although the effect is modest — leading to approximately a 2-to-4 percentage-point increase in turnout. Universal vote-by-mail does not seem to cause large increases in Democratic vote share, contrary to popular claims. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that it could advantage Democrats in very close races.” 

While California and Oregon’s turnouts were higher, some red state primaries have seen abysmal turnout this year, including Indiana (17%) and Mississippi (15%). Three in four Texas voters didn’t cast ballots despite a high-profile Senate race there. Maine is a blue state, but only 37% of voters there made their voices heard despite a nationally watched Senate contest. 

Trump isn’t interested in increasing turnout. He’s focused on sowing voter mistrust in the electoral system, much as he’s tried to kneecap other institutions like the courts, the media, the intelligence community and civil society with lies about their credibility. His intent is that voters see him alone as trustworthy, as he stated at the 2016 Republican National Convention, where he alleged that the nation’s bulwarks are broken and that “I alone can fix it.”

But that “strategy,” such as it is, could hurt Trump in California by depressing Republican turnout in several key House races. That includes the Central Valley seat currently held by Rep. David Valadao, R-Bakersfield, which election analysts call “a toss-up,” and an open San Diego seat that the Cook Political Report rates as “lean Democrat.” If Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton has a prayer of defeating Democrat Xavier Becerra, he will need every Republican to vote, by mail or otherwise. 

Trump may have endorsed Hilton, but he’s not willing to stop sabotaging him by continuing to sow distrust in the state’s election system. 

That’s not surprising. He’s long built his political career, and excused his own failings, by deriding institutions as “rigged” — including the Republican National Committee nominating system that he won in 2016. He continues to insist that he won the 2020 election, even though he lost more than 60 court cases challenging its validity. 

His efforts to produce evidence of vote-by-mail rigging in California have been pathetic. He was particularly incensed on June 7 when “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker of NBC News pressed Trump to provide evidence of rigging in California. 

“Do you have evidence to support that?” Welker asked Trump.

“All I have to do is look,” Trump said. 

“But sir, that’s not evidence,” Welker said. “That’s how they count the votes in California.”

“No, they’re crooked … just like you’re crooked,” Trump said. “Your press is crooked, and ‘Meet the Press’ is crooked. … And so is ABC and CBS and CNN. … You’re either crooked or you’re stupid,” he said. “You know that these elections are rigged. Your network knows that they’re rigged.”

Ultimately, Trump took off his mic, ended the interview and stomped off like a toddler. “Let’s call it quits because I’ve had enough,” Trump said. “Thank you, darling. Have a good time.”

Aseem Shukla contributed to this report.