The findings reinforce the central message of this semester package: Economic resilience increasingly depends on investing in human capital.
For the first time, the EU recommendations accompanying the package will include a dedicated focus on putting education, vocational training, adult learning, STEM skills and reskilling closer to the heart of the EU’s economic governance framework.
“Investing in people is Europe’s strongest competitiveness strategy and the foundation of a Union that can out-innovate, out-compete and withstand any challenge,” said Mînzatu. “This is what changes with this European Semester: Human capital is now treated as a core driver of competitiveness, with country-specific guidance for each member state.”
The employment challenges outlined in the document extend beyond job losses.
The Commission will warn that low-income households could face a disproportionate burden from higher transport fuel prices, costing them an additional 1.4 percent of their income. It will highlight persistent labor market inequalities, noting that non-EU citizens remain significantly more likely to be overqualified for the jobs they hold than native workers.
Brussels will also point to concerns about job quality, saying one in five workers are trapped in low-wage jobs in sectors with weak productivity growth, while one in 12 face a risk of in-work poverty.
Against that backdrop, the Commission will use the package to push EU countries toward reforms aimed at boosting skills, improving job quality and strengthening social protection systems.
As part of Wednesday’s package, Brussels will also put a red flag on Bulgaria’s financial health after scrutinizing its spending habits. Germany, Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia have undergone similar scrutiny but emerged from the Commission’s assessment unscathed — for the time being.