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Recent trading in ConocoPhillips (COP) has drawn attention after the stock declined about 11% over the past month and about 15% over the past 3 months, prompting closer scrutiny of its current valuation.

See our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips.

Looking beyond the recent pullback, ConocoPhillips’ share price is still up 11.42% year to date. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 17.55% and 5 year total shareholder return of 110.03% point to stronger longer term momentum than the latest slide suggests.

If the recent move in ConocoPhillips has you reassessing your portfolio, it could be a good time to scan the wider energy supply chain and check out 34 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With ConocoPhillips now trading at $107.74, alongside an intrinsic discount estimate of about 70% and a value score of 4, the key question is whether this recent weakness signals a genuine opportunity or if the market already prices in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 24.5% Undervalued

ConocoPhillips last closed at $107.74, while the most followed narrative anchors on a fair value of about $142.77. This frames the recent pullback against a higher long term valuation marker.

The company’s expanding LNG portfolio and progress on large-scale liquefaction projects (notably in Qatar, Port Arthur, and Willow) are set to capture significant market share from robust global gas demand, especially as natural gas solidifies its role as a “transition fuel”. These projects are expected to drive a substantial free cash flow inflection and topline revenue expansion through 2029.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, firmer margins and a future profit multiple above the sector norm. The mix of LNG projects, earnings assumptions and a specific discount rate all feed into that fair value line.

Using a 7.108% discount rate, the narrative pulls together projected revenue and earnings, a higher margin profile and an 18.8x future P/E to justify a fair value of $142.77. Compared with the current $107.74 share price, that framework suggests ConocoPhillips trades at a meaningful discount, but the outcome still relies on those cash flow and multiple assumptions holding over time.

Result: Fair Value of $142.77 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, ConocoPhillips’ reliance on large, capital intensive projects and limited renewables exposure means cost overruns or stricter decarbonization policies could quickly challenge that upbeat narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this ConocoPhillips narrative.

Another View on ConocoPhillips Valuation

That 24.5% gap to the $142.77 fair value rests on future cash flows and higher earnings multiples, but the current P/E of about 18x tells a different story. It sits above both peers at 13.8x and the US oil and gas industry at 12.9x, even though revenue and earnings are only expected to grow in the mid single digits. For investors, that raises a simple question: is this a valuation cushion or a pricing risk if those forecasts do not fully play out?

For a closer look at what the current P/E implies versus the fair ratio of 24.2x, and how that gap could close over time, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:COP P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026

NYSE:COP P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026 Next Steps

With sentiment clearly mixed around ConocoPhillips, this is a moment to review the numbers for yourself and decide how comfortable you are with the current trade off between its risks and rewards, starting with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond ConocoPhillips?

If ConocoPhillips has you thinking more carefully about valuation and risk, do not stop here. Use focused tools to surface opportunities that fit your own checklist.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include COP.

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