A leading security analyst warns that Moscow could probe NATO in unexpected ways, and urges Ukraine and Baltic states to strengthen practical defenses.
On the air of Espreso and Slawa.TV, writer and security expert Edward Lukas spoke about how possible actions by Russia could affect NATO, highlighting Ukraine’s role in engaging with Baltic allies. The interview was conducted by Anton Borkovskyi, host of the program Studio West.
Lukas noted that Ukraine should not constantly validate the Baltic states’ fears by spreading assumptions about an inevitable Russian attack. According to him, for the Baltic countries this creates problems: they maintain a high level of vigilance, they cannot be taken by surprise, they are well prepared, capable of quickly mobilizing significant forces, and they have strong alliances – both bilateral and multilateral.
The expert also pointed out that on social media there are people who call themselves supporters of Ukraine and spread the Kremlin narrative in the form of maps showing routes from Kaliningrad, Russia, and Belarus to the Baltic states. Lukas described such posts as manipulative and propagandistic.
The possibility of testing NATO and sensitive scenarios
According to Lukas, there is a real probability that Putin will try to test NATO’s resolve, but not necessarily in the format the Alliance expects. He noted that this could be linked to events beyond the traditional military conflict – for example, related to the Norwegian archipelago of Spitsbergen, or other parts of Europe. But he warned against naive assumptions that the Baltic states will simply come under attack and that the allies will not respond.
The expert emphasized: the threat exists, but it may take forms that go beyond direct intervention. Such scenarios require the Baltic states and their NATO partners not only to be ready to respond but also to strengthen coordination and maintain constant monitoring of the situation in the region.
In summary, Lukas called for staying vigilant, supporting a common security policy, and strengthening cooperation between Ukraine, the Baltic states, and NATO to be ready for any possible development of events and to minimize the potential consequences of a crisis.