CIRO approves Wealthsimple Predict, but former legal head notes sports and politics remain restricted for Canadians

(L) FIFA soccer ball | (C) Wealthsimple Predict app | (R) NHL Stanley Cup

The new Wealthsimple Predict app opens nearly 4,000 event contracts to Canadian retail investors — but CIRO’s regulatory framework means no sports, no politics. A former Wealthsimple legal chief explains why.

Canadians can now legally bet on whether the Bank of Canada will cut rates before year-end, or whether inflation will climb in the third quarter. What they cannot do — at least not through any regulated channel — is put money on who will win FIFA or what team will hoist the Stanley Cup.

That distinction lies at the heart of Wealthsimple Predict, the new standalone app Wealthsimple announced on June 18, 2026, in partnership with U.S.-based Kalshi, the leading American prediction exchange. The app, currently in beta, is expected to launch this summer and will give Canadian retail investors access to regulated event-contract trading for the first time through a mainstream platform.

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The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), the national self-regulatory body that governs investment dealers, authorized Wealthsimple to offer event and forecast contract trading in March 2026 — but that authorization comes with firm limits. For Canadians excited about the possibility of legally trading in prediction markets, these limits may be disappointing.

What Canadians can actually trade

At launch, Wealthsimple Predict will offer access to nearly 4,000 event contracts drawn from Kalshi’s listings — but only within the three categories CIRO has approved for Canadian investors:

Economic indicators — questions tied to data releases such as inflation, GDP growth and unemployment figures

Financial markets — contracts linked to equity indices, interest rate decisions and currency movements

Climate — weather and climate-related outcomes with measurable settlement criteria

Each contract is structured as a yes-or-no question and settles at $1 if the outcome is confirmed, or $0 if it is not. That means if a contract is trading at $0.85, it’s a signal that the market collectively predicts an 85% probability of a yes outcome. Traders can buy or sell positions before settlement as new information shifts prices.

Brett Huneycutt, Wealthsimple’s co-founder and chief product officer, described the contracts (1) as a way for everyday Canadians to take a position — have an opinion — on the factors shaping the economy: Where inflation is headed, what happens to rates, or how the year unfolds.

Huneycutt, along with others in the industry, are positioning prediction markets as a way for investors to hedge. For instance, a borrower watching the Bank of Canada closely could purchase a prediction market contract that would pay out if interest rates climb. This contract purchase would act as a partial hedge against a mortgage renewal — a renewal that would be completed at a higher cost for that borrower, due to higher rates. Keep in mind, any prediction market contract is a zero-sum purchase: Buyers either win or lose.

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Why sports and politics are off the table

The exclusion of sports and political contracts is not an oversight — it reflects the specific scope of CIRO’s authorization and the limits of Canada’s current regulatory structure.

“The offering is limited to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate, the categories CIRO has authorized,” explained Evan Thomas, a fintech and crypto lawyer who previously served as Head of Legal at Wealthsimple, explained the picture clearly to Money.ca. “Kalshi’s sports and election contracts aren’t coming through this channel, at least not right now. So, as far as sports prediction markets in Canada go, the picture is the same.”

One reason for this block is Canada’s regulatory structure.

In the United States, federally registered prediction market platforms have argued that federal derivative law preempts state gaming rules. In Canada, no federal regulator is asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts — securities and gaming regulation are both handled provincially. That means sports prediction markets, if they ever come to Canada, would need to run through provincial gaming regulators in jurisdictions such as Ontario or Alberta.

“If sports event contracts come to Canada, the more likely path still runs through provincial gaming regulators,” Thomas said (2).

Thomas added that such a path would face significant hurdles — including confirming legality under the Criminal Code and existing iGaming frameworks, and potentially requiring statutory amendments at the federal or provincial level.

The regulated vs. unregulated divide — and why it matters

The regulatory gap between approved and offshore platforms is not a formality.

Ilana Keleman, spokesperson for the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), the umbrella body for Canada’s provincial and territorial securities regulators, told Money.ca that Canadians should avoid platforms that are not registered with or recognized by a Canadian securities regulator, as investors’ assets may not be adequately safeguarded.

Offshore platforms offer none of the protections a CIRO-registered dealer is required to provide: Surveillance systems to detect and report insider trading, Know Your Client (KYC) requirements, and proper client asset safeguarding.

And in an effort to protect Canadians action has already been taken to stop unregulated trading firms from operating in Canada. In April 2025, the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) reached a settlement with operators of Polymarket, a U.S.-based blockchain prediction market accessible to Canadians. The OSC found both operators had offered binary options to Ontario investors in violation of Multilateral Instrument 91-102, which prohibits binary options with a term to maturity under 30 days. Neither operator was registered in any Canadian jurisdiction. The ban runs until 2027 (3).

However, not everyone agrees that this is the best way to safeguard Canadians.

Thomas argues (2) that leaving sports markets entirely to unregulated platforms does not protect consumers — it just pushes them toward greater risk: “Not allowing a regulated alternative simply pushes Canadians towards unregulated markets, which hurts consumers rather than protecting them.”

What the Kalshi partnership means for investor protection

According to Wealthsimple, partnering with Kalshi was deliberate as the firm operates as a regulated exchange in the U.S. under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency that has been at the forefront of developing supervision for prediction markets. As a fintech and crypto legal authority who serves as outside general counsel to companies operating in complex regulated environments, Thomas explains that this partnership allows Canadian participants access to Kalshi’s liquidity through a CIRO-registered dealer with the investor protection framework that comes with it.

Another defining feature is that the Wealthsimple Predict app will not offer contracts on violence, terrorism or death — categories available on some offshore platforms.

The app will also display liquidity risk warnings for lower-activity markets, where exiting a position may carry a price penalty.

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Final thoughts for investors

Wealthsimple holds CIRO approval as an investment dealer, but the underlying exchange — Kalshi — is a U.S. entity that has not been recognized by the CSA. In practical terms, that means Canadian regulatory oversight applies to how Wealthsimple handles your account and assets, not to the exchange where contracts are actually settled. It’s a meaningful distinction, and one worth understanding before you fund a position.

CIRO approves Wealthsimple Predict, but former legal head notes sports and politics remain restricted for Canadians

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