The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) on 23 June released its Maritime Barometer Report 2025–2026 during the organization’s Shaping the Future of Shipping Summit in Rome, painting a picture of an industry navigating growing geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty and economic volatility.
The report suggests the global shipping sector is operating in an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable environment. Despite these challenges, it highlights the industry’s resilience and ability to adapt to rapidly changing conditions.
Global shipping is entering a period where uncertainty is no longer an interruption to business, it is the backdrop against which decisions are made. The findings of this year’s Barometer are clear: geopolitical instability has become a defining risk multiplier, influencing everything from market conditions and operational planning to investment decisions and the pace of the energy transition. […]
…said Thomas Kazakos, Secretary General, ICS.
Shipping executives surveyed for the report called for greater international coordination, clearer regulatory frameworks,and stronger financial support mechanisms to help the sector maintain the flow of global trade while advancing its transition toward lower-emission energy sources.
Core takeaways:
Geopolitical instability continues to act as an underlying force after ranking as the most significant risk to business operations for the fourth consecutive year
Regulation, public funding, and market-based measures emerge as the most influential impact factors
Liquified natural gas (LNG) and biofuels are jointly identified as the most viable future fuel options, followed closely by heavy fuel oil (HFO) combined with abatement technologies
Credit: ICS
Political instability
Political instability remains the highest risk for the fourth consecutive year, indicating that it is now structurally embedded, shaping both short- and long-term operating conditions.
This factor is best understood as a cluster of interrelated risks, including sanctions, wars, tariffs, trade agreements, direct attacks on vessels, the sidelining of freedom of navigation and more, with growing consequences not only for global trade flows, but also for seafarers operating in higher-risk environments. As rising trade barriers, economic coercion, and strategic rivalry increase fragmentation and unpredictability, this ‘risk stacking’ effect is evident.
Conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea have reshaped tanker and bulk markets, while ongoing sanctions regimes continue to alter global oil and tanker trade patterns. USA-China trade tensions are accelerating trade fragmentation and supply chain reconfiguration, while emerging tensions in the Arctic may introduce new strategic and operational uncertainties.
Cyber attacks
Cyber attacks rank as the second highest risk in the 2025–2026 ICS Barometer, yet only fifth in terms of confidence in the industry’s ability to manage them. While the risk ranking has marginally declined following several years of increase, confidence has also weakened.
This indicates not reduced exposure, but a widening gap between the scale of the threat and the industry’s ability to respond, particularly as cyber risk becomes more complex, systemic, and harder to contain.
Unilateral and regional regulations
Unilateral and regional regulations remain a top-tier structural risk for the maritime sector, ranking third in perceived risk and fourth-lowest in confidence among industry leaders. Confidence continues to weaken, signalling concern that fragmentation is being actively driven by rising geopolitical instability rather than evolving gradually within stable multilateral systems.
Increasing administrative burden
Increasing administrative burden ranks as the fourth highest risk in this year’s ICS Barometer, while remaining among the lowest in terms of confidence to manage. Looking at the previous four years of results, it has reached its peak confidence rating, roughly tied with 2023-2024, and decreased slightly as a risk from last year’s survey.
Barriers to trade
Barriers to trade rank as the fifth highest risk in this year’s ICS Barometer, with shipping leaders reporting comparatively low confidence to manage this exposure. Over recent years this risk has steadily increased in its ranking. This reflects a broader environment in which trade conditions are being reshaped simultaneously by rising restrictions, policy fragmentation, and a growing number of new trade agreements.
Availability of crew and trained personnel
Availability of crew and trained personnel is a rising operational risk in the 2025–2026 ICS Barometer, ranking sixth overall. Notably, it also records relatively high confidence in the ability to manage it. Compared with other risk categories in this report, this may reflect greater visibility of mitigation pathways, including training investment, welfare initiatives, and recruitment diversification – even as underlying constraints remain.
Although confidence has softened slightly compared with last year, this could reflect a more nuanced recognition of structural workforce constraints rather than a loss of momentum.
In an exclusive interview with SAFETY4SEA, Thomas Kazakos highlighted that the maritime sector is competing with multiple industries for skilled workers, making it essential to improve the appeal of seafaring careers, stressing the need for stronger government support in recruitment and training, alongside better working and living conditions for seafarers.
Fuels and technologies
Barometer respondents identified LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and biofuels as the most viable fuel options over the next decade, with HFO (Heavy Fuel Oil) paired with emissions-abatement technologies also emerging as a leading pathway.
The results point to a preference for solutions backed by existing supply chains, infrastructure, and operational experience, as shipowners weigh the practical challenges of transitioning to lower-carbon fuels.
While alternative fuel pathways continue to gain attention across the industry, concerns over cost, availability, and scalability remain significant barriers to widespread adoption.
As a result, the findings suggest that, in the absence of greater regulatory certainty and clearer policy direction, the sector’s energy transition is likely to progress at a measured pace.
Credit: ICS
Maintaining progress will require regulatory clarity, global alignment, and continued cooperation between industry and governments. The Report reinforces the importance of stable international frameworks that support investment and provide confidence for long-term decision making. At a time of increasing fragmentation, maintaining a consistent global approach is essential for shipping, supply chains, and the wider world economy.
…Kazakos said.