Great article that touches on many important points.
On Turkey not being an ally anymore, while not even being important in a realist/neolrealist sense.
> Today, most American political leaders recognize **Turkey is no ally**. Only a few dozen congressional lawmakers are members of the Turkey Caucus whereas just a decade ago, more than 200 did. Whether transactional or ideological, **Ankara’s dalliance with Moscow** highlights how **unreliable Turkey could be as a NATO ally** during any future crisis. Both **Erdoğan’s support for the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates and reclassification of critics as terrorists demonstrate that Turkey is no ally** in the fight against terror, a recognition furthered by the inter-governmental Foreign Action Task Force’s recent decision to put Turkey on its money laundering and terror finance grey list. **Nor can realists cite Turkey’s value as a bulwark against Iranian ambitions after Turkey tipped Iran off to Israeli espionage on Iran’s nuclear program**.
On people thinking that once Erdogan gone, everything will be fine
> Turks victimized by Erdoğan, Western-oriented Turks, and many emigres both point out that Erdoğan and Turkey are not synonymous.
> This presents two questions. First, whether such unpopularity might lead to his political downfall and, second, whether Turkey can return to the more moderate, secular path it hewed prior to 2002.
> **The answer to both these questions is no**.
> […]
> there is a difference between recognizing that Erdoğan is not Turkey and denying that he has reshaped the country into something that will never again be a partner like it once was.
And on neighborly relations
> **Greeks, Armenians, Arabs, Kurds, and others want nothing more than Turkey to be a normal country, as peace with itself and its neighbors.** To achieve that will take much more than the wishful thinking of exiles and former ambassadors, however; rather, should cancer claim Erdoğan tomorrow, **Turkey would still face a long, hard slog back to normality, one which will be measured not in months but in decades**.
People think that a CHP win would mean things will change for the better on this front. Little to they know about how nationalist the opposition is and how aggressive they can be in terms of foreign policy when compared to Erdogan. Turkey’s neighbors wish for a Turkey, that first and foremost, as the article claims “is at peace with itself” and then “at peace with its neighbors”. Not the invading Turkey in Syria, not the invading, occupying and demographic altering Turkey in Cyprus, not the Turkey that doesn’t comply with the law of sea and acts like a pirate, not the Turkey acts strong in the Caucasus and let’s Russia play a role in end.
but it does not seem like that. you and the people you worship will be brought into justice sooner or later.
Another Rubin article preaching what to do and predicting what will be in and about Turkey. Seriously, doesn’t Rubin have any other thing but writing about Turkey with somewhat racist ridiculous claims? I would be surprised if he came out not to be on “some” countries’ payroll.
Of course they can, the question is how long would it take
Long live padishah Erdoan 🙏
I’m not so sure that Turks want him gone…of course there are many disagreeing with him, but if there are enough of them…
I also can’t imagine any scenario in which he will hand over power peacefully
What a stupid article.
>For the first decade of Erdoğan’s rule, many Western officials refused to recognize or acknowledge the change in Turkey under Erdoğan’s stewardship. Both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, praised Turkey’s democracy long after it ceased being one. While President Donald Trump did not confront Erdoğan with consistency, both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and congressional leaders moved to hold the Turkish president to account. To his credit, President Joe Biden did not approach Erdoğan with the same sycophancy as his predecessors. Today, most American political leaders recognize Turkey is no ally. Only a few dozen congressional lawmakers are members of the Turkey Caucus whereas just a decade ago, more than 200 did.
Nice words to obscure the fact that Erdoğan was initially backed by the US and EU and was invited to the US while he was still just a mayor.
>Nor can realists cite Turkey’s value as a bulwark against Iranian ambitions after Turkey tipped Iran off to Israeli espionage on Iran’s nuclear program.
US fixation with Iran again.
> Instead, Erdoğan’s track record suggests he will avoid a repeat by increasing repression before election day and manipulate figures as votes are tabulated. The fact that so few Turks took to the streets—and the center-left Republican People’s Party, the party to which İmamoğlu belongs, barely raised its voice when Erdoğan arrested Peoples’ Democratic Party leader Salettin Demirtaş only encourages Erdoğan.
1) Whether we like it or not, the elections are mostly legit in terms of votes counted, 2) Demirtaş was arrested years ago when the political climate was quite different, 3) it’s Selahattin.
>Turkey also has an unfortunate history of political assassination. Paramilitaries like SADAT may have used snipers to kill Turks during the Reichstag Fire coup. The group now advertises training in assassination. If Erdoğan faces a charismatic opponent, then he might kill two birds with one stone, knocking off his rival while blaming the murder on another, a tactic he perfected in his rivalry with former ally Fethullah Gülen. As election season nears, İmamoğlu could become a dead man walking.
SADAT is a problem, yeah. They weren’t the ones who fired on people though. I notice this guy makes no mention of Gülen and his men in the army. Aside from being factually incorrect, this paragraph is very unrealistic. Killing an opposing candidate is way too obvious and would make them into a martyr. If the masses love one thing, it’s a “mağdur”.
>(Next paragraphs about Akar)
Absolutely ridiculous to suggest that he would pass it on to Akar, who nobody gives af about. Might as well shut down the AKP instead. Any one of Erdoğan’s sons or sons in law, Süleyman Soylu, or even someone Bahçeli would suggest, are way more likely. This guy either has little idea what he’s talking about, or (much likelier) has some weird agenda, because he’s focusing on all the wrong things, which discredits his analysis.
> More than 30 million Turks have received their education under Erdoğan. His control over the media has reinforced incitement.
>Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also regularly teaches classes at sea about Middle East conflicts, culture, terrorism, and the Horn of Africa to deployed U.S. Navy and Marine units.
This guy is a neocon US imperialist who clearly has a weird military agenda (literally worked for the Pentagon). I know OP also has his own weird Greek nationalist agenda, but in case anyone else actually takes the author seriously, I think [this interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OuR_AtkczM) where he literally presents Gülen’s Islamist views as a better alternative than Erdoğan’s, is enough to disregard him.
Even if they change policy 180 immediately (which they don’t, even if Erdo is gone) it will take over a decade to win back trust of at least some of their neighbors or ex-partners. Economy will recover much faster than politics, damage is immense.
oh yes just another western article praising erdogan for his initial rule which was bending over backwards to suck west. he was western darling even when he was mayor, his political ban was lifted following western pressure, his first act as president was trying to get parliamentary approval for us to station troops in turkey for invasion of iraq. he was quite popular in west when he was jailing kemalists left and right for sham trials. he was praised as great muslim leader when he lifted turkeys veto on nato to bomb libya. he was a muslim mask on western imperialism. this article and the lovely guy who posted this shows us what west wants once again is another erdogan of 2002.
and the muh kurds, greeks and armenians just want peace lmao. greeks claim entire eastmed and then say they want peace. hitler wanted peace as well after invading europe, hitler would be quite contend with peace when he was at the gates of moscow. warmonger stalin rejecting peace. armenians wanted peace after invading entire nk, and displacing hundreds of thousands. barbar turks refusing peace. everybody wants peace as long as it is on their terms. muh peace.
and the western oriented turks victimized by erdogan? lmao. f*ck these western oriented turks. they were the liberal enablers of erdogan. they were the ones supporting sham trials, they were the ones supporting and creating cover for erdogan when he was changing constitution. now they act like victims. neither feto fanboys, nor these western oriented turks aka liboşlar, are victims or erdogan. just because erdogan shafted them as well along the way doesnt change the fact they are as guilty as erdogan.
Lol is Michael Rubin considered as a reliable source nowadays in this sub ? He is literally Anti-Turkish troll that writes all the time about Turkey. It is well known fact that he takes money from Greek-Armenian diaspora and bulls**it all the time for making them happy. Most of the time with lies,fabrications and accusations. I have never seen any sane analysis from Rubin. Also an analysis that has happened to be true. It is better to tag this as “Propaganda”. If you are not a bot or a neo-nazi likes to shit on Turkey without any reason there is no reason take a miserable guy like Rubin seriously.
This guy honestly seems clueless. I’m sure he’s an expert on geopolitics of the region etc. but he shouldn’t write about the internal politics of Turkey if he doesn’t know much about it.
> To assume that Erdoğan will subordinate himself to electoral accountability is wishful thinking. True, in 2019, an opposition candidate won Istanbul despite Erdoğan ordering a revote on flimsy grounds. While this might give hope that a candidate—perhaps even Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—can unseat the president, however, this assumes that the lesson Erdoğan learned is that he must respect the ballot box. Instead, Erdoğan’s track record suggests he will avoid a repeat by increasing repression before election day and manipulate figures as votes are tabulated. The fact that so few Turks took to the streets—and the center-left Republican People’s Party, the party to which İmamoğlu belongs, barely raised its voice when Erdoğan arrested Peoples’ Democratic Party leader Salettin Demirtaş only encourages Erdoğan.
1. There’s no major election interference in Turkey. He should look into what happened on the eve of the 1st Istanbul election and how Imamoglu prevented Erdogan from stealing Istanbul by staying up all night.
1. Nobody’s gonna support Demirtas, except for basic human rights stuff, who has recording of wanting to make a statute of Ocalan, the leader of PKK. On the other hand Erdogan can’t touch someone from the main opposition alliance of CHP/IYI without invoking the public’s wrath.
-> Open article
-> see author Michael Rubin
-> close it.
> Both Erdoğan’s support for the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates and reclassification of critics as terrorists demonstrate that Turkey is no ally in the fight against terror
USA has been openly supporting YPG (thus PKK) for years now, no way any American politician thinks this for real, this writer is bullshiting lol
There’s mutliple areas that could be rebuilt:
**Rebuilding the economy**? The problem is that time spent rebuilding is time that could have been spent doing anything else, all the while whole other countries don’t have that disadvantage.
Innovation is so central to the economy now, it’s why catch-up is so painful and difficult. Even if Erdogan is gone most investors are scared off, and neigboring economies of the Caucasus and Near-East are uncertain. It’s not the model market that Turkey used to be in the early 2000’s. Still, the country still has a good foundation, so a change in monetary policies and other measures to regain trust could be done.
**Politically and Internally**? It’ll have to rebuild institutions, contend with corruption, factionalism, issues of religion vs secularism, immigration/refugees and perhaps other situations which are not as well know due to being suppressed.
**Diplomatically**? How will relations with most of Turkey’s neighbors will go, especially since measures have been made to lock it out, and memories about the military adventures may remain with Armenia, Greece and Syria (possibly provoking retaliation). The balancing act with powers is failing as the US, Russia and the EU distrust it, and we’ll see how it goes with China. Would there even be a change from Erdogan’s strategy, since it’s the economy which may bring him down?
Future Turkish policymakers will have a tough job ahead of them. There was a worse situation after WWI, so it’s not impossible, but it will be difficult.
Economic can recover… but the damage of turkeys reputation is way bigger… this will take at least 2 or 3 decades to recover… to reach bach the level of 2000.
Even if everything changes today… noone of us will see Turkey as part of the EU in their life time
15 comments
Great article that touches on many important points.
On Turkey not being an ally anymore, while not even being important in a realist/neolrealist sense.
> Today, most American political leaders recognize **Turkey is no ally**. Only a few dozen congressional lawmakers are members of the Turkey Caucus whereas just a decade ago, more than 200 did. Whether transactional or ideological, **Ankara’s dalliance with Moscow** highlights how **unreliable Turkey could be as a NATO ally** during any future crisis. Both **Erdoğan’s support for the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates and reclassification of critics as terrorists demonstrate that Turkey is no ally** in the fight against terror, a recognition furthered by the inter-governmental Foreign Action Task Force’s recent decision to put Turkey on its money laundering and terror finance grey list. **Nor can realists cite Turkey’s value as a bulwark against Iranian ambitions after Turkey tipped Iran off to Israeli espionage on Iran’s nuclear program**.
On people thinking that once Erdogan gone, everything will be fine
> Turks victimized by Erdoğan, Western-oriented Turks, and many emigres both point out that Erdoğan and Turkey are not synonymous.
> This presents two questions. First, whether such unpopularity might lead to his political downfall and, second, whether Turkey can return to the more moderate, secular path it hewed prior to 2002.
> **The answer to both these questions is no**.
> […]
> there is a difference between recognizing that Erdoğan is not Turkey and denying that he has reshaped the country into something that will never again be a partner like it once was.
And on neighborly relations
> **Greeks, Armenians, Arabs, Kurds, and others want nothing more than Turkey to be a normal country, as peace with itself and its neighbors.** To achieve that will take much more than the wishful thinking of exiles and former ambassadors, however; rather, should cancer claim Erdoğan tomorrow, **Turkey would still face a long, hard slog back to normality, one which will be measured not in months but in decades**.
People think that a CHP win would mean things will change for the better on this front. Little to they know about how nationalist the opposition is and how aggressive they can be in terms of foreign policy when compared to Erdogan. Turkey’s neighbors wish for a Turkey, that first and foremost, as the article claims “is at peace with itself” and then “at peace with its neighbors”. Not the invading Turkey in Syria, not the invading, occupying and demographic altering Turkey in Cyprus, not the Turkey that doesn’t comply with the law of sea and acts like a pirate, not the Turkey acts strong in the Caucasus and let’s Russia play a role in end.
but it does not seem like that. you and the people you worship will be brought into justice sooner or later.
Another Rubin article preaching what to do and predicting what will be in and about Turkey. Seriously, doesn’t Rubin have any other thing but writing about Turkey with somewhat racist ridiculous claims? I would be surprised if he came out not to be on “some” countries’ payroll.
Of course they can, the question is how long would it take
Long live padishah Erdoan 🙏
I’m not so sure that Turks want him gone…of course there are many disagreeing with him, but if there are enough of them…
I also can’t imagine any scenario in which he will hand over power peacefully
What a stupid article.
>For the first decade of Erdoğan’s rule, many Western officials refused to recognize or acknowledge the change in Turkey under Erdoğan’s stewardship. Both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, praised Turkey’s democracy long after it ceased being one. While President Donald Trump did not confront Erdoğan with consistency, both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and congressional leaders moved to hold the Turkish president to account. To his credit, President Joe Biden did not approach Erdoğan with the same sycophancy as his predecessors. Today, most American political leaders recognize Turkey is no ally. Only a few dozen congressional lawmakers are members of the Turkey Caucus whereas just a decade ago, more than 200 did.
Nice words to obscure the fact that Erdoğan was initially backed by the US and EU and was invited to the US while he was still just a mayor.
>Nor can realists cite Turkey’s value as a bulwark against Iranian ambitions after Turkey tipped Iran off to Israeli espionage on Iran’s nuclear program.
US fixation with Iran again.
> Instead, Erdoğan’s track record suggests he will avoid a repeat by increasing repression before election day and manipulate figures as votes are tabulated. The fact that so few Turks took to the streets—and the center-left Republican People’s Party, the party to which İmamoğlu belongs, barely raised its voice when Erdoğan arrested Peoples’ Democratic Party leader Salettin Demirtaş only encourages Erdoğan.
1) Whether we like it or not, the elections are mostly legit in terms of votes counted, 2) Demirtaş was arrested years ago when the political climate was quite different, 3) it’s Selahattin.
>Turkey also has an unfortunate history of political assassination. Paramilitaries like SADAT may have used snipers to kill Turks during the Reichstag Fire coup. The group now advertises training in assassination. If Erdoğan faces a charismatic opponent, then he might kill two birds with one stone, knocking off his rival while blaming the murder on another, a tactic he perfected in his rivalry with former ally Fethullah Gülen. As election season nears, İmamoğlu could become a dead man walking.
SADAT is a problem, yeah. They weren’t the ones who fired on people though. I notice this guy makes no mention of Gülen and his men in the army. Aside from being factually incorrect, this paragraph is very unrealistic. Killing an opposing candidate is way too obvious and would make them into a martyr. If the masses love one thing, it’s a “mağdur”.
>(Next paragraphs about Akar)
Absolutely ridiculous to suggest that he would pass it on to Akar, who nobody gives af about. Might as well shut down the AKP instead. Any one of Erdoğan’s sons or sons in law, Süleyman Soylu, or even someone Bahçeli would suggest, are way more likely. This guy either has little idea what he’s talking about, or (much likelier) has some weird agenda, because he’s focusing on all the wrong things, which discredits his analysis.
> More than 30 million Turks have received their education under Erdoğan. His control over the media has reinforced incitement.
That [sort of](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/turkish-students-increasingly-resisting-religion-study-suggests) [backfired](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43981745) on him. Nobody is happy with the education system right now (for a million other reasons), not even his own voters.
>Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also regularly teaches classes at sea about Middle East conflicts, culture, terrorism, and the Horn of Africa to deployed U.S. Navy and Marine units.
This guy is a neocon US imperialist who clearly has a weird military agenda (literally worked for the Pentagon). I know OP also has his own weird Greek nationalist agenda, but in case anyone else actually takes the author seriously, I think [this interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OuR_AtkczM) where he literally presents Gülen’s Islamist views as a better alternative than Erdoğan’s, is enough to disregard him.
Plus, on his view that we will have a bloody civil war-esque election in Turkey, he also thought that about the 2019 local elections: https://twitter.com/mrubin1971/status/975542988733640704
Obviously no such thing occurred.
Even if they change policy 180 immediately (which they don’t, even if Erdo is gone) it will take over a decade to win back trust of at least some of their neighbors or ex-partners. Economy will recover much faster than politics, damage is immense.
oh yes just another western article praising erdogan for his initial rule which was bending over backwards to suck west. he was western darling even when he was mayor, his political ban was lifted following western pressure, his first act as president was trying to get parliamentary approval for us to station troops in turkey for invasion of iraq. he was quite popular in west when he was jailing kemalists left and right for sham trials. he was praised as great muslim leader when he lifted turkeys veto on nato to bomb libya. he was a muslim mask on western imperialism. this article and the lovely guy who posted this shows us what west wants once again is another erdogan of 2002.
and the muh kurds, greeks and armenians just want peace lmao. greeks claim entire eastmed and then say they want peace. hitler wanted peace as well after invading europe, hitler would be quite contend with peace when he was at the gates of moscow. warmonger stalin rejecting peace. armenians wanted peace after invading entire nk, and displacing hundreds of thousands. barbar turks refusing peace. everybody wants peace as long as it is on their terms. muh peace.
and the western oriented turks victimized by erdogan? lmao. f*ck these western oriented turks. they were the liberal enablers of erdogan. they were the ones supporting sham trials, they were the ones supporting and creating cover for erdogan when he was changing constitution. now they act like victims. neither feto fanboys, nor these western oriented turks aka liboşlar, are victims or erdogan. just because erdogan shafted them as well along the way doesnt change the fact they are as guilty as erdogan.
Lol is Michael Rubin considered as a reliable source nowadays in this sub ? He is literally Anti-Turkish troll that writes all the time about Turkey. It is well known fact that he takes money from Greek-Armenian diaspora and bulls**it all the time for making them happy. Most of the time with lies,fabrications and accusations. I have never seen any sane analysis from Rubin. Also an analysis that has happened to be true. It is better to tag this as “Propaganda”. If you are not a bot or a neo-nazi likes to shit on Turkey without any reason there is no reason take a miserable guy like Rubin seriously.
This guy honestly seems clueless. I’m sure he’s an expert on geopolitics of the region etc. but he shouldn’t write about the internal politics of Turkey if he doesn’t know much about it.
> To assume that Erdoğan will subordinate himself to electoral accountability is wishful thinking. True, in 2019, an opposition candidate won Istanbul despite Erdoğan ordering a revote on flimsy grounds. While this might give hope that a candidate—perhaps even Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—can unseat the president, however, this assumes that the lesson Erdoğan learned is that he must respect the ballot box. Instead, Erdoğan’s track record suggests he will avoid a repeat by increasing repression before election day and manipulate figures as votes are tabulated. The fact that so few Turks took to the streets—and the center-left Republican People’s Party, the party to which İmamoğlu belongs, barely raised its voice when Erdoğan arrested Peoples’ Democratic Party leader Salettin Demirtaş only encourages Erdoğan.
1. There’s no major election interference in Turkey. He should look into what happened on the eve of the 1st Istanbul election and how Imamoglu prevented Erdogan from stealing Istanbul by staying up all night.
1. Nobody’s gonna support Demirtas, except for basic human rights stuff, who has recording of wanting to make a statute of Ocalan, the leader of PKK. On the other hand Erdogan can’t touch someone from the main opposition alliance of CHP/IYI without invoking the public’s wrath.
-> Open article
-> see author Michael Rubin
-> close it.
> Both Erdoğan’s support for the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates and reclassification of critics as terrorists demonstrate that Turkey is no ally in the fight against terror
USA has been openly supporting YPG (thus PKK) for years now, no way any American politician thinks this for real, this writer is bullshiting lol
There’s mutliple areas that could be rebuilt:
**Rebuilding the economy**? The problem is that time spent rebuilding is time that could have been spent doing anything else, all the while whole other countries don’t have that disadvantage.
Innovation is so central to the economy now, it’s why catch-up is so painful and difficult. Even if Erdogan is gone most investors are scared off, and neigboring economies of the Caucasus and Near-East are uncertain. It’s not the model market that Turkey used to be in the early 2000’s. Still, the country still has a good foundation, so a change in monetary policies and other measures to regain trust could be done.
**Politically and Internally**? It’ll have to rebuild institutions, contend with corruption, factionalism, issues of religion vs secularism, immigration/refugees and perhaps other situations which are not as well know due to being suppressed.
**Diplomatically**? How will relations with most of Turkey’s neighbors will go, especially since measures have been made to lock it out, and memories about the military adventures may remain with Armenia, Greece and Syria (possibly provoking retaliation). The balancing act with powers is failing as the US, Russia and the EU distrust it, and we’ll see how it goes with China. Would there even be a change from Erdogan’s strategy, since it’s the economy which may bring him down?
Future Turkish policymakers will have a tough job ahead of them. There was a worse situation after WWI, so it’s not impossible, but it will be difficult.
Economic can recover… but the damage of turkeys reputation is way bigger… this will take at least 2 or 3 decades to recover… to reach bach the level of 2000.
Even if everything changes today… noone of us will see Turkey as part of the EU in their life time