LNG feedgas deliveries to U.S. export terminals reached 19.7 Bcf per day Tuesday. That is the strongest reading since late April and it arrives at a time when the domestic market is already tightening on summer heat. Every Bcf flowing to an export terminal does not go into storage and at nearly 20 Bcf per day the pull on domestic supply is running at a pace that offsets a significant portion of the production growth.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex is still damaged. Repairs are expected to take years. That facility handles roughly one-fifth of global LNG production and the longer it stays offline the more international buyers depend on U.S. cargoes. European storage is at 49% full against a 63% five-year seasonal average. That gap keeps the pull on U.S. exports strong through the summer and into the fall.
The Heat Forecast Held and Power Demand Is Following
Above-normal temperatures across major eastern population centers are expected to persist through at least July 4. Highs in the 80s, 90s, and low 100s are keeping air conditioning load elevated and power generators are burning more gas to meet it. The western United States is running cooler with periods of showers but the eastern two-thirds of the country is where the electricity demand lives.
Edison Electric Institute reported weekly electricity generation declined 2.17% from a year ago in the latest week. The trailing 52-week average is still running 2.45% above last year. One cool week pulled the comparison lower. The heat building through early July should reverse that quickly.
Production at 112.2 Bcf Per Day Is the Ceiling the Bulls Have to Push Through
Lower-48 dry gas production was estimated at 112.2 Bcf per day Tuesday, up 2.9% from a year ago.The EIA raised its 2026 forecast to 111.0 Bcf per day. Baker Hughes reported the rig count increased by three to 125 last week. The supply side is not backing off.
Production at this level is the reason the market has not broken through resistance despite nine sessions above the 50-day. Weather and LNG demand are absorbing the output but not outpacing it consistently enough to force the breakout. The bulls need the heat to intensify or LNG flows to climb further before the supply ceiling gives way.