Neso: What UK’s grid could look like beyond 2030

In response to a number of global events, Neso has updated its plans for the future of the network which were originally published in 2024.

Neso is now urging for accelerated reinforcement of the UK’s high‑voltage network to avoid rising costs and delivery delays.

In the updated report, Neso said changes to the connections process, the UK Government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan and revised offshore network plans mean its 2024 findings largely still stand but require some adjustments.

It builds on Neso’s Beyond 2030 publication from March 2024 and incorporates its latest “Future Energy Scenarios”.

The update identifies 43 transmission projects that Neso recommends for development through the 2030s, more than half of which it expects to be needed by the mid‑2030s.

The 43 recommended projects were selected through an evidence‑based assessment that weighed cost, deliverability and environmental and community effects.

Neso divides proposals into near‑to‑medium term options, projects it regards as mature enough for delivery by the mid‑2030s, and longer‑term options that require further development and will be reassessed in a forthcoming Centralised Strategic Network Plan (CSNP), due in 2028.

A map showing Neso’s 43 recommended upcoming network upgrade projects

Since the 2024 report, Neso has identified that demand for electricity in the UK is expected to rise by more than 30% by the mid‑2030s as the energy mix changes and new industries expand, including data centre construction and the electrification of industrial heating and transport.

Much of the new generation and demand will be located away from existing load centres, placing additional strain on the transmission “motorways” that move power around the country, Neso said.

Without network reinforcement, Neso is now warning constraint costs, payments the system operator makes to manage bottlenecks by curbing generation in one area and increasing it elsewhere, could roughly treble between 2031 and 2035.

That, Neso stated, would increase consumer bills and could force greater use of gas generation if renewables cannot be transmitted where needed.

Limited transmission capacity would also delay new connections for homes, businesses and clean generators, potentially holding back investment.

The update signals Neso’s intention to increase the UK’s use of undersea cabling over new onshore lines with the organisation recommending roughly three times more new offshore links than onshore routes.

Where onshore work is required, Neso has placed its preference on upgrades to existing infrastructure rather than new builds to reduce community and environmental impacts.

Neso’s new recommendations are advisory and intended to inform Ofgem’s investment decisions and transmission owners’ proposals but it does call for full implementation of the Transmission Acceleration Action Plan.

Neso director strategic energy planning and chief engineer Julian Leslie said: “Delivering energy infrastructure efficiently and on time is critical to ensuring the system remains resilient and affordable for everyone.

“Our electricity system must meet growing future needs to unlock economic growth and enable job creation across every sector and part of Great Britain.

“Providing clarity on where our future network is needed helps give certainty to industry to enable continued delivery and provides confidence to support investment decisions.”

Alongside the update Neso published an Electricity Networks Explainer to improve transparency about how transmission planning decisions are made. It also published a set of Electricity Transmission Design Principles to guide transmission owners on consistent design choices.

Neso said a broader Strategic Spatial Energy Plan will follow next year, feeding into the longer‑term CSNP in 2028.

This will take a whole‑system view across electricity, gas and hydrogen for the coming 25 years.

Reaction

Stantec transmission and distribution director in the UK and Ireland Sophie Lee released a statement to NCE discussing how the UK must “radically upgrade” its infrastructure as the way we use energy is changing.

“The main points raised in this report are clear,” she said.

“The need to radically upgrade the UK’s electricity network is evolving, but so too are the costs associated with any delay.

“Energy resilience and national security have always gone hand-in-hand. Integrating wind and solar farms, data centres, and even entire new towns into the grid are all incredibly complex challenges in their own rights, not to mention the rewiring of the existing grid to accommodate generational changes in where and how power is generated and used.”

She added: “The sector requires timely, ambitious, and long-term investment if it is to rise to these challenges. Upgrades are needed, and they need to be delivered quickly.

“This means leveraging more efficient design approaches, smarter programme technologies, and more innovative digital tools.”

AtkinsRéalis market director for power, renewables and industrial Ryan Macdonald said: “This update from Neso provides further clarity on the direction of the UK’s transmission network, reinforcing the central role it will play in enabling a reliable, clean and affordable energy system through the 2030s.

“The UK’s energy transition is now in a decisive delivery phase, where the network becomes the key enabler of electrification, industrial competitiveness and long-term energy security.”

He added: “With electricity demand forecast to grow by more than 30% by 2035, expanding and upgrading transmission capacity will be central to unlocking investment, supporting reindustrialisation and driving regional growth.

“Meeting that opportunity means delivering infrastructure at pace and with greater coordination, as well as building the capability to deliver at scale. Strengthening supply chains, investing in skills and bringing together the right engineering and delivery expertise will be critical in ensuring the network acts as a solid foundation and enabler for the UK’s growth.”

Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We are taking a strategic approach to building an energy system fit for the future – that safeguards our energy independence and keeps bills down while driving economic growth in every corner of Britain.

“This provides a blueprint for where our electricity grid is needed – to power AI and industry, and ensure homes and businesses benefit from Britain’s clean, homegrown energy.”

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