A new national poll shows Vice President JD Vance ahead of the potential 2028 Republican presidential primary field with a commanding advantage, though the election remains years away and candidates have yet to announce any formal plans.
The latest Big Data Poll found Vance leading prospective Republican contenders with 35.4 percent support, more than double that of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who finished second with 16.5 percent. On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris led the field with 29.1 percent, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom with 15 percent.
The poll reflects Vance’s prominence within the Republican Party and among likely voters. While the survey indicates he is the early favorite, the 2028 nomination contest remains fluid, with several high-profile Republicans—including Rubio—widely viewed as potential contenders if they choose to run.
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Meanwhile, within the Democratic field, surveys in 2026 show Harris leading prospective primary voters overall in many polls, with Newsom and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also drawing measurable support, along with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.
What The Poll Shows
According to the poll released this week, Vance leads all prospective candidates, including Rubio, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and others.
DeSantis landed 7.1 percent of the potential vote, Kennedy Jr. has 6.5 percent, Cruz has 4.4 percent, and the remaining potential candidates all have under 4 percent. The poll notes that 12.1 percent are undecided overall for who they would vote for in the GOP primary and 2.5 percent said they would vote for someone else outside of the listed options.
Among likely voters, Vance has 36.6 percent of the vote compared to Rubio’s 17.5 percent.
The survey shows that the vice president leads Rubio in virtually every category in the survey, including men, women, Hispanics, Republicans and Independents.
The poll was taken from June 26 to June 28, 2026, among 1,261 registered Republican voters and has a 1.8 percent margin of error.
The findings broadly align with other polling showing Vance at or near the top of the prospective Republican field. Harris has also generally emerged as the early Democratic frontrunner despite continued speculation over whether she, Newsom, or another Democrat will ultimately seek the party’s nomination.
With more than two years until the first presidential primaries, analysts caution that early preference polls primarily measure name recognition and current standing within each party rather than predict the eventual nominees.
What Has JD Vance Said About a Potential 2028 Run?
Vance has repeatedly declined to formally commit to a 2028 presidential campaign, saying his focus is on serving in the current administration rather than planning his next political move.
“Yes, after the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision,” he told Megyn Kelly last month in part, amid a wide-ranging interview.
Speaking to CBS Sunday Morning last month alongside second lady Usha Vance, JD said in part, “I have no doubt that the president of the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do”. He added, “But we really just haven’t talked about what that thing will be.”
In May when asked about Trump’s previous comments calling a possible Vance-Rubio ticket a “dream team”, Vance told Newsweek during a news conference at the White House that Americans would likely unfavorably view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road,” adding, “There are few topics I want to talk about less.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas