Typhoon Bavi in the western Pacific Ocean may brush Taiwan, then head into eastern China late this week after slamming Guam and the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands at Category 5 intensity.
Where is Bavi right now?
Bavi continues toward the west and northwest over 700 miles southeast of Okinawa after it regained super typhoon status on Tuesday. The typhoon’s eye has grown sizably since Monday.
Typhoons are what hurricanes are called in the western Pacific Ocean north of the equator. A “super typhoon” has maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or higher.
Here’s what Bavi did to Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Bavi raked across the island of Rota, about 60 miles northeast of Guam, at 9 a.m. local time Monday (7 p.m. EDT Sunday) at Category 5 intensity. The storm struck with peak sustained estimated winds in the eyewall near 180 mph.
While Guam and the Northern Marianas have a long history with intense super typhoons, Bavi appeared to be the first Category 5 whose eye passed directly over Rota. Category 4 Gilda also passed over the island on Nov. 13, 1967.
Widespread damage was reported on the islands, particularly Rota. A water distribution station near Rota’s airport suffered structural damage, and power poles and lines were downed and bent at the airport, itself. A wood structure with a tin roof was reportedly destroyed, as well.
Gusts of 111 mph were clocked at Saipan International Airport and at the National Weather Service in Guam. A gust to 94 mph was clocked on the island of Tinian, northeast of Rota and about 100 miles northeast of Guam.
Numerous roads were flooded in Guam from either heavy rain and/or storm surge. Rocks and debris left lanes of Route 1 (Marine Corps Drive) impassable, according to the National Weather Service. Guam International Airport picked up 15.68 inches of rain on July 4-5, over 12 inches of which fell on July 5, alone.
Bavi first became a tropical storm on July 1. Two days later it rapidly strengthened into a typhoon, then a super typhoon later that day.
Where is Bavi headed next?
As the forecast map below shows, Bavi is expected to take a northwest bend by Wednesday.
On that track, Bavi could first pass over southwest Japan’s Sakishima Islands Friday night, then close enough to at least parts of Taiwan sometime Saturday. After that, Bavi could then arrive into parts of eastern China, including near Shanghai, Saturday night, as a tropical storm or minimal hurricane.
Interests in those areas should continue to monitor forecasts during the week for updates.
Will it lose any intensity?
Bavi will experience increasing wind shear and eventually move over less warm ocean water in the coming days.
That’s expected to knock down some of Bavi’s wind intensity by later this week.
However, Bavi has become larger, meaning a more expansive area of Taiwan and eastern China could experience at least tropical storm wind gusts by Friday and Saturday.
What to know about Guam, Marianas typhoons
The western Pacific Ocean north of the equator is the planet’s most active zone for tropical cyclones.
In an average year, 25 to 26 tropical storms form in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, 16 of which become typhoons. That’s roughly a dozen more storms and nine more hurricanes (typhoons) than an average Atlantic hurricane season.
Global tropical cyclone tracks
Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are typically affected by tropical storms or typhoons six to seven times each year.
While typhoons can occur in the western Pacific Basin any time of year, the season for the Marianas usually stretches from June through December.
Intense typhoons have struck the islands recently.
Less than three months ago, Category 4 Super Typhoon Sinlaku clobbered the Northern Marianas and Guam with damaging winds, storm surge and rainfall flooding.
In May 2023, Category 4 Typhoon Mawar caused extensive damage to villages, pushed up to 14 feet of storm surge and dumped 1 to 2 feet of rain in Guam.
In late October 2018, Category 5 Super Typhoon Yutu slammed the islands of Saipan and Tinian with 175-mph winds, the strongest typhoon on record near those islands by wind speed.
Two people were killed and over 100 injured; numerous homes and buildings were damaged, including Saipan International Airport, and vegetation was stripped on parts of the islands.
Super Typhoon Yutu October 2018
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.