New advances in quantum computing compress the timeline for attacks that could expose private keys and destabilize major cryptocurrencies. Industry leaders are racing to design migrations interoperable standards and coordinated rollouts across blockchains before adversaries gain quantum advantage.

The cryptocurrency industry worldwide is beginning to prepare for the growing threat of quantum computing: recent advances in this field fuel concerns that quantum systems could break the cryptography that protects transactions and digital wallets. This prospect is prompting companies and developers of blockchain projects to actively prepare and plan a transition to more resilient solutions.

Quantum computers can solve complex mathematical problems much faster than today’s machines and could potentially break traditional encryption methods. Such capabilities threaten the global cryptocurrency market worth about $2 trillion, which is built on blockchains with outdated cryptography and has a history of major hacks.

Although the technology remains largely experimental, concern grew after Alphabet’s Google March study hinted that quantum systems could break current encryption schemes sooner than expected. Google noted that such quantum computing capabilities could emerge by 2029, whereas previously it was believed this would not happen for several years.

Citigroup research and other analysts also noted that breakthroughs in quantum technologies and the development of artificial intelligence are tightening the timeframes within which cryptocurrencies will remain protected from cyberattacks.

Given these risks, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order last month aimed at strengthening the nation’s quantum capabilities.

Some crypto firms and blockchain developers are already developing plans to transition to quantum-resistant cryptography, which may require a long and comprehensive overhaul of digital asset infrastructure.

This is the most direct and significant threat to cryptocurrencies and cryptographic networks.

– Chris Tam

BLOCKCHAINS USE DECADE-OLD CRYPTOGRAPHY

Most blockchains rely on elliptic-curve cryptography to form public and private keys and digital signatures that prove ownership of crypto assets and enable transactions. Public keys typically derive from private keys and become visible after assets are used in a transaction.

While ordinary computers cannot easily recover a private key from a public one, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically do so, enabling attackers to forge signatures and carry out fraudulent transactions.

This risk is especially acute for public networks, where transactions are irreversible by design.

“Cryptocurrencies, in particular, are vulnerable because blockchains are transparent and immutable,” noted Utkarsh Ahuja, managing partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, a crypto investor.

Bitcoin, the most popular currency, is considered particularly vulnerable due to its long transaction history and the large number of public keys.

According to estimates in June 2026, roughly 35% of the circulating supply of tokens could be at risk from quantum attacks. Other studies from previous years have estimated this figure to be as high as 50%.

Even a single significant theft or large sale of a token could shake its price, warned Cristiano Ventricelli, vice president and senior digital assets analyst at Moody’s Ratings. “All of this will affect the market,” he added.

Investors are already factoring the threat: Jefferies analysts, in particular, revised their Bitcoin projections, trimming 10% of its allocation in portfolio models due to the long-term threat of quantum computation.

PLANS TO UPGRADE BLOCKCHAINS ARE TAKING SHAPE

Experts emphasize that there are still several years before a breach of blockchains, and the industry expects a shift toward new post-quantum cryptography that is resistant to quantum attacks. However, engineering challenges remain: post-quantum signatures are typically significantly larger than traditional ones, requiring more storage and bandwidth and could impact networks with block-size constraints like Bitcoin.

There are engineering challenges ahead, but there are already technical solutions that can address them.

– Zach Pandl

According to Ahuja and others, full quantum protection will likely take several more years, so both a single company and the broader industry may choose a gradual transition to avoid risks associated with a sudden switch to new schemes.

Some experts compare this process to “the same modernization style” as during the transition to global use of nuclear energy or other major technological shifts. At the same time, on micro-markets, software solutions must be flexible, given that blockchains by design are largely decentralized and require the consensus of a majority of participants.

The Ethereum Foundation says it plans to provide full protection from quantum attacks by 2029, while the Algorand Foundation – one of the early initiatives – recently published a roadmap for post-quantum capabilities and plans to support post-quantum accounts as early as this year. “That looks like a responsible step – to have a plan now,” said Bruno Martins, chief technology officer of the Algorand Foundation.

Although earlier assessments point to the possibility of an earlier threat, experts confirm: this is a complex task that requires a measured approach and coordination among developers, investors, and regulators. Work continues, but steps are already taking shape to ensure the security and stability of crypto infrastructure in the future.