In my view, the US and its allies need to take several concrete steps in response to these developments.
First, the US needs to continue modernising its nuclear triad, with new Sentinel ICBMs, B-21 bombers, Long-Range Stand-Off cruise missiles and Columbia-class submarines, and it needs to update the Department of Energy’s nuclear infrastructure through its National Nuclear Security Administration.
Second, the US should consult closely with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia to determine what theatre nuclear capabilities are needed for regional deterrence. The US is already developing a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile, currently scheduled for deployment in the early 2030s. Washington should also consider the feasibility of an air-delivered system that could be carried by dual-capable aircraft such as the F-35, which would expand US delivery options.
Third, it is critical that the three nations in AUKUS – Australia, Britain and the US – continue to advance that initiative. AUKUS’s pillar one focuses on deploying nuclear-powered attack submarines, while pillar two focuses on advanced capabilities, including autonomous systems. As these capabilities come online, they will help sustain a more favourable conventional balance of power in the region.
Finally, the US should support allied efforts to acquire precision conventional strike capabilities, such as Japan’s acquisition of Tomahawk cruise missiles. As I noted in a June article for The Strategist, one of the central challenges here is constrained US defence-industrial capacity, which is delaying these sales. It is therefore imperative that the US work with allies to expand production capacity and resilience through co-production agreements on key munitions.