Estonian intelligence warns Moscow is amplifying anti-Western narratives to distract from battlefield failures and to undermine allied unity.

Russia responds to Ukraine’s successful strikes on oil refineries and infrastructure targets by intensifying the information war against Western countries.

According to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Defense Forces intelligence center of Estonia, these theses were voiced during the weekly briefing at the Estonian Ministry of Defence.

Despite statements by Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin about significant successes on the front, including the capture of Kostyantynivka, in practice, according to Kiviselg, the Russian Federation has no substantial achievements. He added that, driven by frustration over its failures, Russia has undertaken several long-range strikes as part of its own terrorist campaign.

Kiviselg noted that Ukraine has simultaneously significantly expanded the range of targets and the reach of strikes, delivering them deep into Russian territory.

Moreover, Ukraine continues to strike power plants and infrastructure in the occupied Crimea, leading to numerous interruptions in energy supply on the peninsula.

It is worth noting the attack on the oil refinery in the Omsk region, which is one of the largest oil refining enterprises of the Russian Federation

– Ants Kiviselg

According to the expert, the Omsk plant previously produced about 15% of the aviation fuel required by Russia. The plant has now suspended operations, which in the near term could directly limit the capabilities of the Russian Air Forces.

We know that in previous years the Omsk plant produced roughly 15% of the aviation fuel Russia needed. At present this plant has suspended its operations, which in the near term could directly limit the capabilities of the Russian Air Forces

– Ants Kiviselg

Such assessments underscore Ukraine’s growing ability to strike at long range and indicate that the Russian Federation will not be able to fully defend important regions with its air defense systems. The Russian information space is intensifying anti-Western theses and threats toward Western countries.

All these statements are more likely to serve the aims of a coordinated information operation, whose probable goal is to evoke a sense of threat in the West due to possible escalation and to undermine unity in continued support for Ukraine

– Ants Kiviselg

In this context, Moscow also states that this is not a special operation but a full-scale war, citing support from some countries, including the United States and other European states, which provide Ukraine with information, intelligence, equipment, and weapons.

In concluding analyses, experts emphasize that the front of information warfare remains a critical component of modern warfare, and Russia’s reaction indicates a systematic use of propaganda and threats, but concrete military steps by Russia have not yet been confirmed.

Context and possible consequences of actions in the region

According to intelligence, the activation of long-range strikes and the intensification of the information campaign are being viewed as elements of a strategy by the Russian side aimed at preserving influence and attempting to sway international support for Ukraine.

In this dynamic, tracking real military risks and the appropriate response by the international community is crucial, as the informational component increasingly shapes political decisions and public opinion.

РФ відповідає на дальні удари України посиленням інформаційної війни – естонська розвідка