There has never been another time in modern history where global supply chains are being challenged by geopolitical risks at the scale we see today, causing disruption, chaos and uncertainty in managing international and import/export operations.

Resiliency, stability and sustainability are being threatened with an increasing flow of challenges every other month, seemingly even every other day.

Spend a day in the life of a corporate Procurement Manager: faced with high tariffs from his supplier source in Ningbo, China, his search for alternative vendors requires that he navigate a situation where the current Administration is consistently changing import tariffs and duties on many countries from which we traditionally source, where one day the duty rate may be 15% and then some political event occurs that the Administration reacts to, thereby increasing the tariff to 25% in the blink of an eye.

Or… a Logistics Manager negotiating an ocean freight contract from her lead supplier country, India, only to find out a month later that the Administration increased the ad valorem tariff by an additional 15% surcharge because of a political stance India took globally.

The “uncertainty” is a new reality in global trade as the current Administration is utilizing tariffs to negotiate reciprocal tariffs in all countries with whom we trade.

No matter how meritorious the goal is, the process is a disruptive event causing all stakeholders in global supply chain management to face chaos and uncertainty almost daily.

Irrespective of the reality of all these very legitimate challenges, global supply chain executives must find a strategy to navigate these roadblocks and bring solutions to their company.

As we enter the second half of 2026, the more serious challenges geo-politically are in these areas:

The wars in Ukraine and Iran;

Tariffs on exports to the U.S.;

Difficult and unstable economies in most countries engaged in global trade;

The global transportation infrastructure’s difficulty in predicting asset placements;

Increased costs and inflation in most major markets;

AI grabbing hold and growing with a huge uncertainty in how best to capture the benefits;

U.S.-China discourse;

The political divide in Washington, D.C. preventing mutual cooperation and compromise.

The War in Ukraine is causing major combat casualties on both sides and significant costs to both nations, including Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the United States.

The Iran War is redefining American military strength and determination in global statesmanship. The War has strained the flow of petroleum and related products from all the Middle East, raising the cost of energy globally along major shortages in some areas. It has also created a new rift between the United States and the NATO countries that refused to support the American and Israeli intrusion into Iran and with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The current Administration in Washington D.C. is utilizing tariffs to influence global trade with its attempt to have all countries of the world create “reciprocity” in their import tariffs of U.S. products exported to them. The goal is meritorious, but the process utilized by the Administration to gain reciprocity has created chaos, disruption and uncertainty.

Supply chain executives must pivot swiftly in order to mitigate the impact of the new tariffs, which are evolving and changing frequently, creating significant challenges.

Globally, there are extreme economic issues, inflation and major cost increases in basic areas of human need … food, housing, energy and transportation.

Those responsible for international logistics and freight are attempting to navigate capacity, consistency, availability and cost of international air, ocean and truck cargo — a moving target with long-term contracts being harder to accomplish.

AI and Global Trade

AI is being sought after with great enthusiasm and vigor in all aspects of global trade and supply chain management. There are many initiatives to utilize AI, but there is significant uncertainty about applying the technology in areas of international business. We have found proven applications in global sourcing, tracking and tracing, trade compliance, problem mitigation and resource development.

Ever since the Clinton Administration there has been a serious discussion on reducing the dependance on China for sourcing and an overall decoupling. The current Administration is clearly sending actions on increased tariffs, trade restrictions and significant rhetoric on serious concerns with China, particularly in their relationship with Russia, Iran and N. Korea. Two such superpowers having discourse creates much angst in global politics and economics, making it an intense geopolitical area of concern.

Last but not least is the growing discourse in Washington D.C. where the political divide is so great that no compromises can be achieved, making progress much more difficult to obtain. The chasm between both parties is divisive and threatens the foundation of our country’s established principles, causing a distrust in Washington and politicians, in general.

The sum of all the threats outlined above has perhaps created the most significant and volatile period in international business, going all the way back to 1942 and World War II.

Recommendations

How we navigate through these geopolitical issues will determine what companies struggle and what companies thrive. Some proven strategies in geopolitical disruption are:

Become deeply knowledgeable about geopolitical events so you can make better and more informed decisions.

Create a vast array of resources, particularly with trade associations such as the International Compliance Professional’s Association (ICPA), the American Association for Exporters and Importers (AAEI), the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), the Institute of Supply Chain Management (ISM) and the Association for Supply Chain Management (ASCM), as well as industry-specific associations for your industry, such as the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA) and the Auto Care Association in automotive. Spend time reading periodicals and content from sources such as Global Trade Magazine and AftermarketNews that routinely publish articles and news on current geopolitical issues. These can make a notable difference on managing trade disruptions and making for better run global supply chains.

Develop relationships with critical partners in global trade: trade attorneys, consultants, freight forwarders, 3PLs, customhouse brokers and accounting/financial service practices.

 Prepare proactively for disruption and chaos so you have options available when negative events and circumstances occur.

Diversify your sourcing options to varied companies and countries.

Most importantly: stop chasing cost and work toward obtaining the best value for your spend.

Developing strategies proactively can provide robust mitigation when disruption, chaos and uncertainty impact international trade and the management of global supply chains.