South Africa is moving to strengthen its defenses against potential oil supply disruptions, with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources proposing a new strategic stocks policy as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sharpen concerns over global energy security.
The proposal, now gazetted for public comment, comes as oil-importing countries assess the risks of a prolonged standoff involving the U.S. and Iran, as well as continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.
Speaking in a television interview, the Fuels Industry Association of South Africa’s chief executive, Abafani Chifularo, said the country is currently adequately supplied and not facing an immediate fuel shortage, even after recent periods of heightened geopolitical stress.
“We’ve got adequate supply of products in the country. We are not really concerned,” Chifularo said, noting that South Africa was able to continue supplying the domestic market even at the height of the conflict. “As it stands now, as much as we see the developments in the Middle East, we are not really that concerned, because we are adequately supplied.”
Still, the broader message from industry and policymakers is that current stability should not be mistaken for long-term security. The draft strategic petroleum stocks policy is designed to give South Africa a framework to prepare for major disruptions in either crude oil feedstock or refined fuel imports.
According to Chifularo, the proposal would help ensure that the country is better positioned to respond if global supply chains are interrupted.
“This is where the draft strategic petroleum stock policy comes very handy,” he said. “It helps the country to be ready and be prepared for any major disruption in the supply of both feedstock in the form of crude oil and also in the form of products.”
At the center of the debate is South Africa’s changing fuel supply structure. The country has increasingly shifted toward import dependence, particularly for refined petroleum products, as domestic refining capacity has come under pressure. Chifularo said any viable strategic stocks framework must reflect that reality rather than rely on assumptions based on an older, more refinery-centered model.
“South Africa has moved into import dependence as far as finished products are concerned,” he said. “So it has to be realistic. It needs to talk to what is currently on the ground.”
He estimated that South Africa now imports roughly 70% of its finished fuel products, while the remaining 30% is supported through crude oil imports and domestic production, including coal-to-liquids facilities operated by Sasol. That means policymakers must think beyond crude reserves alone and consider a broader basket of strategic energy inputs and products.
In practice, that would involve balancing reserves between crude oil, refined fuels and, in the South African context, potentially coal feedstock as well. It also means mapping how fuel enters the country, how it is stored, and where emergency inventories should be located.
Chifularo said the ports of Cape Town and Durban are especially important to the country’s fuel security architecture because they serve as major entry points for imported products. As a result, any expansion of strategic reserves would likely require storage infrastructure close to those hubs.
“It becomes very important that Cape Town and Durban become very critical for securing the supply of fuel in the country,” he said. “It means even our tankage that is required to support strategic stocks needs to be much closer to those ports of entry.”
The proposal also raises a major economic question: who pays for energy insurance? Chifularo stressed that maintaining strategic stocks would carry significant financial implications and cannot be treated as the sole responsibility of either the state or private industry.
Instead, he described fuel security as a “shared national responsibility” requiring coordination between government and the private sector. He added that public consultation will be critical because the ultimate cost of holding strategic inventories is likely to be passed through, at least in part, to consumers.
“At the end of the day, the motorists are going to bear the cost of ensuring strategic stocks,” he said. “This is an insurance to ensure that the country does not run out of fuel.”
That framing could become central as the consultation process unfolds. While strategic reserves can help cushion supply shocks and reduce the risk of panic or economic disruption during a crisis, they also require sustained investment in storage tanks, logistics, inventory management and policy oversight.
For South Africa, the conversation is also tied to the longer-term question of domestic refining capability. Asked whether the policy should include plans to increase refining capacity, Chifularo said the answer lies in building a strategy that reflects the current structure of the industry in full, including imports, local refining output, crude procurement and synthetic fuels.
Rather than isolating one part of the value chain, he suggested, the government should evaluate the entire supply picture at any given time: how much fuel is coming from domestic refineries, how much is imported, where those imports originate, and how quickly the country could respond if any one channel were disrupted.
Industry participation is now expected to play a major role in shaping the final framework. Chifularo said the gazetted document marks the start of the consultation process, with the fuels industry preparing formal submissions to refine and improve the proposal.
“This is the commencement of that consultation process,” he said. “The industry is also part of the public, so we are putting together comments so that we can shape and improve what has been proposed.”
He added that industry believes a collaborative approach with government can yield a strong policy outcome for South Africa.
The draft policy lands at a time when governments worldwide are rethinking energy resilience amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty, tighter fuel markets and vulnerabilities in maritime trade routes. For South Africa, the challenge will be to turn a broad policy ambition into a workable, affordable and infrastructure-backed system that protects the economy without placing an excessive burden on consumers.
For now, the immediate message from industry is one of calm: supplies remain stable. But the policy push signals that officials and market participants alike are increasingly focused on a more difficult question — not whether South Africa has enough fuel today, but whether it would be ready if tomorrow’s global shock proved harder to absorb.