Who is the lib dem running in Tiverton? Last time it was Prof. Timperley, who was a surgeon I’ve known through work, really great dude.
Has a sitting PM ever been out of the country for a by-election before, let alone *two*??
My favourite thing here is that Tiverton is an amazingly safe Tory seat. Like 25-35points safe normally.
The fact that the Tories are selling this as an expected loss is less about the fact that it’s going to be a loss. But more that if they do hold onto it (the margins are super close) it will be sold as an amazing victory and a sign that Boris is bouncing back!!
The best thing about it is- it will work! The PM narrowly winning an extremely safe seat will be splashed all over the papers. Cons +3 nationally etc.
Honestly if Tiverton remains tory knowing there will be a GE soon enough. If they don’t protest vote, knowing they can then vote tory again in the GE if they so choose. I will lose faith in this country
The really interesting thing here isn’t going to be the two results, it’s going to be the margin of victory.
If the Lib Dems get close without winning in Tiverton, that could still be a 30%+ swing agains the Tories and something that will worry a **lot** of southern MPs in seats where the Lib Dems are in second place.
And the main thing to focus on in Wakefield is the size of the swing from the Tories to Labour. The Tories won by 7% last time and Labour won by about 5% in each of the previous elections.
There’s an extent to which a by-election is about giving the Government a kicking and the Tory candidate who keeps accidentally comparing himself to Harold Shipman isn’t exactly bringing out the personal vote. I’m hoping to see Labour win by 15%+ to suggest that all of the positive polling is real and that they’re in a position to win back all of the so called “Red Wall” seats!
Labour will win Wakefield. Tiverton will be closer, but the Lib Dems could possibly edge it.
I have zero faith in people to get rid of the Tories.
Happy to be proven wrong, but I’m not expecting it.
Just walk already Bozza
The Tory candidate tacitly backed Johnson and claims that Johnson believing he told the truth makes it all OK. That might be a poor answer for some voters, especially floating voters, it won’t put off diehard Tories though. As long as those people have everything going fine for them, they will see no reason to abandon the party.
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Add:
>Times: [Sir John Curtice: Tories face losing both by-elections — and worse](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sir-john-curtice-tories-face-losing-both-by-elections-and-worse-dlk3snd0q) – ([🪞](https://archive.ph/BfK0A))
>
>If the government lost both races, it would be the first time this had happened in more than 30 years
–
>Financial Time: [Tory strategists braced for double defeats in by-elections](https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b3793-7953-4f12-896e-9cb60069545a) – ([🪞](https://archive.ph/27AkF))
>
>Johnson faces more pressure as Labour and Lib Dems set for victory in Wakefield and Tiverton
If they win this country really is doomed
Who is the lib dem running in Tiverton? Last time it was Prof. Timperley, who was a surgeon I’ve known through work, really great dude.
Has a sitting PM ever been out of the country for a by-election before, let alone *two*??
My favourite thing here is that Tiverton is an amazingly safe Tory seat. Like 25-35points safe normally.
The fact that the Tories are selling this as an expected loss is less about the fact that it’s going to be a loss. But more that if they do hold onto it (the margins are super close) it will be sold as an amazing victory and a sign that Boris is bouncing back!!
The best thing about it is- it will work! The PM narrowly winning an extremely safe seat will be splashed all over the papers. Cons +3 nationally etc.
Honestly if Tiverton remains tory knowing there will be a GE soon enough. If they don’t protest vote, knowing they can then vote tory again in the GE if they so choose. I will lose faith in this country
The really interesting thing here isn’t going to be the two results, it’s going to be the margin of victory.
If the Lib Dems get close without winning in Tiverton, that could still be a 30%+ swing agains the Tories and something that will worry a **lot** of southern MPs in seats where the Lib Dems are in second place.
And the main thing to focus on in Wakefield is the size of the swing from the Tories to Labour. The Tories won by 7% last time and Labour won by about 5% in each of the previous elections.
There’s an extent to which a by-election is about giving the Government a kicking and the Tory candidate who keeps accidentally comparing himself to Harold Shipman isn’t exactly bringing out the personal vote. I’m hoping to see Labour win by 15%+ to suggest that all of the positive polling is real and that they’re in a position to win back all of the so called “Red Wall” seats!
Labour will win Wakefield. Tiverton will be closer, but the Lib Dems could possibly edge it.
I have zero faith in people to get rid of the Tories.
Happy to be proven wrong, but I’m not expecting it.
Just walk already Bozza
The Tory candidate tacitly backed Johnson and claims that Johnson believing he told the truth makes it all OK. That might be a poor answer for some voters, especially floating voters, it won’t put off diehard Tories though. As long as those people have everything going fine for them, they will see no reason to abandon the party.