Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have one of two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Calvin from the United States, who supports USMNT, Seattle Sounders and Everton. Good luck!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.
What happened on Matchday 32?
Many saw Spain-France as a clash of the two best teams at the World Cup. France had been the outstanding team of the tournament heading into the semi-finals, with the best attacking quality and depth of any team since Brazil won the 2002 World Cup with a fron tline of Rivaldo, Ronaldo and Ronaldinho.
Spain had not been so thrilling but what they may lack in world-class talent across the attack (though Lamine Yamal is outstanding), they make up for with their possession-heavy identity, which can control the tempo of a match regardless of the opponent.
As it transpired, France’s world-class forwards were entirely nullified by an excellent team performance from Luis de la Fuente’s Spain side.
In Didier Deschamps’ final game as France boss before Zinedine Zidane is expected to take charge, he lost the midfield battle to his counterpart, with Rodri bossing the game from the No 6 position.
Spain were slightly fortunate to take the lead from the penalty spot through Mikel Oyarzabal after Yamal flung himself at the ball on Lucas Digne’s blind side, anticipating a kick from the France defender, but their second was among the goals of the tournament. Finished by Pedro Porro, Spain built their attack wonderfully from their goalkeeper Unai Simon before Porro received a pass on the edge of the box, played a one-two with Dani Olmo, and finished past Mike Maignan.
If you thought the result would be a tough pill to swallow for the French, it pales in comparison to us at Predictions HQ. Algo is conducting a 4K visual fireworks display on its computer screen after going two points ahead of the experts (who chose France). And with an insurmountable lead in the streak tie-breaker, it painfully confirms Algo’s victory as the experts can only finish level on points at best.
If you ask us, the real battle was with the six-year-old, anyway.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Predictions for Matchday 33England vs Argentina, semi-final, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. Both teams have shown an ability to find a way through adversity to win, even if they’re not playing well. For one, that will continue on to Sunday’s final, but it’s very difficult to know who will emerge victorious from this game.
Watch Rating: 5/5. Neither team have been an eye-catching watch from a stylistic perspective, but they have been involved in close, enthralling matches throughout the knockout stages that you can’t take your eyes off. Lionel Messi and Jude Bellingham make this worth watching on their own.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “A team that has its flaws, that has had to dig itself out of a few holes, and no one can quite work out how good they are, but is being led by one of the game’s global superstars and are finding ways to win. It’s a description that applies to both England and Argentina.
“This is a long-standing, fierce rivalry on and off the pitch. There is the history of the Falklands War in 1982, but the footballing narrative is of memories of Diego Maradona’s Hand of God in the 1986 World Cup, or David Beckham’s sending off in 1998.
“Argentina have been unconvincing in the knockout stages with 3-2 victories over Cape Verde (via extra time) and Egypt before another extra-time victory against Switzerland.
England are a moments team — and Jude Bellingham is key to that (Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
“Their campaign has been defined by emotion and Messi. They have struggled for control in games, but whenever they have needed a moment, it has often been the 39-year-old who has stepped up — he now has eight goals and two assists. These two sides have not played each other since 2005, which means England have never faced Messi, who was suspended for that one. Stopping him remains the key to limiting Argentina, but doing that is easier said than done.
“Thomas Tuchel described his side’s 2-1 quarter-final victory over Norway as ‘lucky’, and it was difficult to argue with him as England lacked impetus, dynamism and defensive solidity for large portions of that game. They have not been perfect, but they have not needed to be. Just like Argentina, they are a moments team.
“Fortunately, they have been able to rely on Bellingham to step up whenever they have needed a moment, taking his tournament goal total to six with his double against Norway. Alongside Harry Kane, he has been England’s driving force.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: ENGLAND WIN
Guest Subscriber Calvin: ENGLAND WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: ARGENTINA WIN
Stanley the dog: ARGENTINA WIN
Algo: ENGLAND WIN