Rate-hike anxiety has driven cryptocurrency prices lower all year, but if the market is reading the tea leaves correctly, the past two weeks have eased some of the pressure. A weak June payrolls report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent guarded remarks have eased the odds of a July rate hike to just 22%.
Two cryptocurrencies in particular are likely to benefit directly from that probability dropping: Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE). Both are worth buying right now, but that was true before as well. Let’s dive in and map out why they stand to gain in the near term.
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Image source: Getty Images. By some metrics, buying Bitcoin is a bet on liquidity
Historically, Bitcoin’s price action tends to track how many dollars are moving through the global financial system. Tight policy pushes speculative capital out toward safer pastures, but when central banks ease, it flows back in, often in spades. Given that these tendencies are widely known, it often only takes a shift in expectations about future liquidity to produce changes in the market.
Bitcoin has been grinding down from its record highs set in October 2025, and in June, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw capital outflows of $4.5 billion, the most ever. Those ETFs hold about 1.45 million bitcoins in total, and their marginal flow is a big factor in the coin’s price. If Warsh talks down the rate-hike risk, that marginal bid is likely to return — and it might even stick around, assuming the Fed does what it signals it will do.
Of course, understanding the Fed’s future behavior is more difficult than before with the new chairman, who has said he wants to reduce guidance on rates. Warsh has recently said that inflation is too high. If there’s another hot inflation report, the rate-hike narrative could resurface very quickly.
But even if that happens, it will still be worth buying Bitcoin. In the long run, fundamental factors like its slowing supply growth have a bigger impact than the drivers like the Fed and the macro environment, which are limited to affecting the short and medium term.
Hyperliquid could benefit from lower rates in more than one way
Hyperliquid is the largest decentralized perpetual futures exchange, and its native token, HYPE, has one of the most direct value capture designs in the crypto sector.
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