Moscow’s strategic communications cast Russia as a backseat passenger on a road to war in Europe – but war is not inevitable.
As expected, at the NATO summit in Ankara the Alliance dedicated much of its time to the importance of boosted defence spending and reiterating support for Ukraine. It is also collectively considering preparations for warfare with Russia at an as-yet-undetermined date.
NATO appears convinced that the next major war will be with Russia in Europe and is making plans accordingly. Numerous articles to this end have appeared of late, suggesting variously that Russia has designs on a limited land incursion of Poland to test Alliance resolve, despite there being no plausible evidence beyond Moscow’s usual range of scenario planning to suggest that Russia intends to do this.
But for Moscow, there are probably three parallel conversations taking place, which in the Kremlin’s understanding are entirely separate – its current war with Ukraine; its bilateral relationship with the Americans, and the potential for a future war with NATO.
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