The following is an adapted version of an article written by Laura Nyilas, a research fellow at the Europe Strategy Institute of the University of Public Service, originally published in Hungarian on the Five Minutes Europe blog of Ludovika.hu.
NATO heads of state and government gathered in Ankara on 7 and 8 July 2026 to reaffirm their unwavering commitment to collective defence under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, as well as their commitment to the transatlantic bond. There is no question that the European allies and Canada have once again reaffirmed that the United States is indispensable to maintaining transatlantic security. Still, it remains to be seen whether NATO 3.0, as proposed by US Secretary of Defence Peter Brian Hegseth, and the greater European role called for by the Americans truly signal a fundamental change.
When it comes to NATO summits, there is usually—if anything—only one figure that sticks in the public’s mind: the pledges, mainly from European countries, to increase defence spending. In the case of the Ankara summit, however, this would be misleading. Although the 5 per cent commitment remains a key political message, the true significance of the 2026 summit lies not in budgetary debates but in the transformation of NATO’s operations.
Many NATO summits have marked milestones in the alliance’s development, and the current one is no exception. One of the most important developments to watch at the 2026 Ankara summit is that NATO has shifted its focus from budget debates to capability development. Although from an analytical perspective, the focus this year is not necessarily on the numbers, they are, of course, still extremely important. In 2025, European allies and Canada increased their investments in key defence needs by more than $139 billion. In July 2026, new procurements worth more than $50 billion were announced in Ankara. In addition, nearly $40 billion is being spent on countering unmanned systems, as well as an additional 27 billion euros on modernizing existing fuel storage and distribution infrastructure. Defence spending is thus clearly on the rise, new capabilities are being introduced, and defence industry production is expanding. ‘We are rebalancing our security for the better, and that is what NATO 3.0 is all about,’ Mark Rutte stated. The goals were clear; the real turning point will come in 2026 when these results are achieved.
‘NATO has shifted its focus from budget debates to capability development’
Although Mark Rutte emphasized that the North American and European defence industries will, among other things, work hand in hand to develop next-generation capabilities, it became clear at the Ankara summit that Europe is becoming the centre of NATO’s conventional military capabilities. Of course, there is no doubt that the United States will remain the cornerstone of European security, but Europeans will take on a much greater share of the burden—or at least the political will to do so exists. From the American perspective, this is not the goal; rather, the aim is to reduce the financial burden on Washington. However, a more autonomous Europe can resist American pressure, chart its own course on economic and regulatory issues, and exercise greater control over its own security and industrial policies. Of course, this was not discussed openly at the NATO summit, but let us not forget that this is, in fact, one of the direct motivations for establishing European strategic autonomy. In other words, we can interpret this to mean that NATO will not only not be an obstacle to strategic autonomy but can actually complement it synergistically.
Transatlantic burden-sharing has repeatedly (in fact, continuously since the 1970s) caused disagreements and tensions between the United States and Europe within NATO. Given the recent increase in European defence spending and the discussions at the Ankara summit, it appears that this issue has also entered a new phase. Europe and Canada have increased their defence spending by more than 20 per cent since 2024, and this could be followed by further double-digit growth in 2026. However, this raises an important strategic dilemma: the question is not whether Europe will spend more, but whether its spending priorities will be focused on European or transatlantic cooperation. (One example of this is the ‘Buy European’ approach, which prioritizes support for European industry in joint EU defence programmes.) The latter is likely to be one of the most serious points of friction between the United States and its European (and Canadian) allies. Below, we will examine what other findings related to the summit appear to be the most significant.
‘The United States will remain the cornerstone of European security, but Europeans will take on a much greater share of the burden’
Ukraine’s evolving role as a security actor was a key issue at the NATO summit. In addition to the ‘Patriot announcement’, NATO allies—except for the United States—pledged 70 billion euros in aid to Ukraine and reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining that level of support through 2027. Beyond European aid, a shift has also occurred in US–Ukrainian relations. In an unusual move, Donald Trump had nothing but praise for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Along with these kind words, Trump also promised to permit Ukraine to manufacture the urgently needed Patriot air defence missiles. All of this suggests that (although Ukraine’s NATO membership was, of course, not on the agenda) support for Ukraine is not only important from the perspective of Europe’s defence and geopolitics but is also an investment that can be turned into a military advantage for NATO itself.
Another key item on the agenda in Ankara was strengthening ties between NATO and defence industry stakeholders and establishing new partnerships, as industrial cooperation is becoming increasingly important for bolstering NATO’s deterrence and defence capabilities. Strengthening cooperation between allies and defence industry players is critical to enhancing supply chains’ resilience, and closer strategic cooperation also reduces their vulnerability.
In recent years, US President Donald Trump has, whether intentionally or not, transformed the transatlantic alliance. We cannot claim that he saved it, but neither can we say that he caused as much damage as the commentary following some of his statements predicted. On numerous occasions, Trump has put pressure on both Europe and the transatlantic alliance itself, which ultimately resulted in NATO—and Europe within it—becoming stronger and more resilient. Regardless of Trump’s rhetoric, the alliance’s goals and achievements have remained largely intact. Even before the 2026 summit, numerous concerns arose regarding Donald Trump’s conduct, as the US president’s negative, personal attacks could have undermined the alliance’s unity. By the end of the meeting, however, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to NATO. The most important lesson in this case, however, is not Trump’s change of heart, but rather that NATO’s institutional mechanisms were able to manage this political uncertainty.
‘In recent years, US President Donald Trump has…transformed the transatlantic alliance’
One of the most important messages from the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara is that cooperation no longer depends on a single political actor or that actor’s political will but has evolved into an institution capable of adapting and emerging stronger from any internal disagreements within the alliance, thus clearly transforming dependence on the United States into a more balanced transatlantic partnership. Increased spending, the development of defence and industrial capabilities, and the gradual ‘integration’ of Ukraine demonstrate that the alliance is capable of renewing itself and adapting to the strategic challenges of the 21st century.
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