Hyderabad: A powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is likely to break a 150-year record, according to climate scientists and the latest forecasts.
If current forecasts prove accurate, the event could combine with human-driven climate change to push global temperatures to unprecedented levels in 2027 and trigger widespread extreme weather across the world.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.
It is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a cycle that alternates between warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases every two to seven years. These shifts influence weather patterns across the globe.
Why are scientists concerned this time?
According to projections presented by Berkeley Earth, an independent climate research organization, the current El Niño is likely to exceed the previous record set during the 2015–16 event.
According to Berkeley Earth, which analyzed projections from 14 climate models, the developing El Niño is expected to surpass the strength of the record 2015–16 event by a significant margin.
Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is an 80% chance that a “very strong” El Niño will develop by the end of 2026, with conditions expected to persist until at least April 2027.
What could happen in 2027?
Scientists at Berkeley Earth estimate that the combination of this exceptionally strong El Niño and ongoing global warming could push the global average temperature to around 1.7°C above the pre-industrial average in 2027.
Such a level would place the planet close to the long-term temperature threshold highlighted in the Paris Agreement.
What impacts could be expected?
A very strong El Niño can disrupt weather worldwide. Some regions may experience severe floods due to heavier rainfall, while others could face droughts, especially India, which can see prolonged heatwaves and an increased risk of wildfires.
Warmer oceans may also damage coral reefs and reduce the ability of oceans and ecosystems to absorb carbon dioxide.
Researchers have also warned that the economic consequences could be significant. A previous study estimated that the 1997–98 El Niño reduced global economic growth by trillions of dollars, and scientists believe an event of this magnitude could have even greater long-term economic impacts.
Is climate change making El Niño stronger?
Scientists say the answer is not yet certain. While it is well established that El Niño temporarily raises global temperatures, researchers are still investigating whether long-term climate change is making these events stronger or more frequent.
Climate models increasingly point in that direction, but more evidence is needed before reaching a definitive conclusion.