Couldn’t read the full article without creating an account (No thanks) but I suspect there won’t be tailbacks because as happened before the UK government will either implement measures to keep goods vehicles away from the ports and/or companies just won’t bother trying to send goods if they’re just going to get stuck for days on end.
It also seems likely that the UK government will delay the introduction of various checks on imports to the UK since as far as I know they’ve still not gotten the infrastructure, staff and other resources requires in place to carry them out.
However the EU is bringing its rules of origin checks on UK exports in next year which the UK government can’t stop which is going to make problems for UK companies who export to the EU even worse thanks so all the extra.
As I understand at the moment they just have to tick a box saying they meet the conditions for importing to the EU tarrif free, soon they’ll have to actually prove it. That’s an additional administrative burden that comes with costs even if they do meet the requirements to avoid tarrifs.
A complete shambles
Basically speaking Britain had 5 years to set up customs infrastructure and personnel, and chose not to do so.
1. It would make people keenly aware of the damage of Brexit well before leaving, hence they put it off. Meanwhile EU nations set up for this to be ready whenever Brexit finally happened, which happened to be the end of 2020.
2. It would make people keenly aware of the damage of Brexit now, so they continue to delay as long as they can
Crux of the issue is that the UK is too dependent on imports (particularly food and medicines) to suffer ANY interruptions from its pre Brexit flow, as the bare shelves already attest to. ANY checks on its substantial EU imports constitute such a delay. So the government is content to continue waving EU goods into the country without doing checks as if pre Brexit, even as this makes EU goods more competitive inside Great Britain’s (not Northern Ireland) own home market and undermines GB goods. Also allows for easy smuggling.
Biggest problem, as noted by Liz Truss, is that under WTO any trade outside of a formal agreement must treat all other countries in the WTO the same (“legal challenge”.) Withdrawal Agreement and Trade and Co-operation Agreement’s *formal* grace periods have largely expired. As such the special customs exception no longer applies, regardless of how *unilaterally* the UK extends it. Unilateral means just one, rather than an agreement, much less a formal one.
It’s not an exaggeration to say there are billions worth of reasons to punish the UK for this. Say for example North American chlorinated chicken is currently checked and rejected at UK ports. The US could demand this go unchecked as EU chicken is, as they are entitled to be treated fairly under WTO rules. Considering the intense and cheap NA farming methods are (if arguably less humane) than EU methods are, US chicken can wrest millions worth of *UK* market share from UK and EU farmers. And that’s just one country’s (US) grievance with one industry (poultry) in one sector (agriculture.) Nothing about Chinese steel, manufacturing, hormone fed beef, etc. Again, literally billions worth of reasons for non EU countries (rest of the WTO basically the world) to punish the UK over this.
Considering the most basic of escalations are sanctions, not exactly a good thing for such an import dependent country.
It’s really a matter of time before the shoe drops as other countries begin seeing this “temporary” extension as a permanent one, and wanting in on the same treatment the EU is getting. Once one country makes the demand, the rest are going to dogpile on it with their own. Especially given there are quite a few non EU countries or trade blocs with enough economic and/or diplomatic heft to sanction first and justify it later, bypassing a WTO legal challenge. And again, billions worth of reasons to do so.
Threats of sanctions from the rest of the world would leave the UK in quite a pickle, really. Can…..
1. Eat the sanctions and continue relying on the EU. Sounds like “Global Britain” is instantly going kaput
2. Check EU goods as they do with other goods from 3rd countries it has no customs union with. Good luck doing that when UK customs is already stretched thin on the export side as it is. More than doubling it by stretching it to handle the larger import side seems ill advised.
3. Letting god knows what into the country unchecked, competing with home markets, ignoring UK laws like no chlorinated chicken, and ruining UK exports (nobody is going to trust UK exports without expensive verification)
1. This is tolerated at the moment because UK trusts EU quality. Makes the last two problems mentioned in 3 largely invisible. Heaven help you with Asian, African, South American, North American quality. Could be lower, could be higher. who knows, it wouldn’t be checked before being allowed in.
4 comments
Your choice, what’s the news?
Couldn’t read the full article without creating an account (No thanks) but I suspect there won’t be tailbacks because as happened before the UK government will either implement measures to keep goods vehicles away from the ports and/or companies just won’t bother trying to send goods if they’re just going to get stuck for days on end.
It also seems likely that the UK government will delay the introduction of various checks on imports to the UK since as far as I know they’ve still not gotten the infrastructure, staff and other resources requires in place to carry them out.
However the EU is bringing its rules of origin checks on UK exports in next year which the UK government can’t stop which is going to make problems for UK companies who export to the EU even worse thanks so all the extra.
As I understand at the moment they just have to tick a box saying they meet the conditions for importing to the EU tarrif free, soon they’ll have to actually prove it. That’s an additional administrative burden that comes with costs even if they do meet the requirements to avoid tarrifs.
A complete shambles
Basically speaking Britain had 5 years to set up customs infrastructure and personnel, and chose not to do so.
1. It would make people keenly aware of the damage of Brexit well before leaving, hence they put it off. Meanwhile EU nations set up for this to be ready whenever Brexit finally happened, which happened to be the end of 2020.
2. It would make people keenly aware of the damage of Brexit now, so they continue to delay as long as they can
Crux of the issue is that the UK is too dependent on imports (particularly food and medicines) to suffer ANY interruptions from its pre Brexit flow, as the bare shelves already attest to. ANY checks on its substantial EU imports constitute such a delay. So the government is content to continue waving EU goods into the country without doing checks as if pre Brexit, even as this makes EU goods more competitive inside Great Britain’s (not Northern Ireland) own home market and undermines GB goods. Also allows for easy smuggling.
[https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-liz-truss-letter-boris-johnson-brexit-border-plans-concerns-risks-2020-7?r=US&IR=T](https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-liz-truss-letter-boris-johnson-brexit-border-plans-concerns-risks-2020-7?r=US&IR=T)
Biggest problem, as noted by Liz Truss, is that under WTO any trade outside of a formal agreement must treat all other countries in the WTO the same (“legal challenge”.) Withdrawal Agreement and Trade and Co-operation Agreement’s *formal* grace periods have largely expired. As such the special customs exception no longer applies, regardless of how *unilaterally* the UK extends it. Unilateral means just one, rather than an agreement, much less a formal one.
It’s not an exaggeration to say there are billions worth of reasons to punish the UK for this. Say for example North American chlorinated chicken is currently checked and rejected at UK ports. The US could demand this go unchecked as EU chicken is, as they are entitled to be treated fairly under WTO rules. Considering the intense and cheap NA farming methods are (if arguably less humane) than EU methods are, US chicken can wrest millions worth of *UK* market share from UK and EU farmers. And that’s just one country’s (US) grievance with one industry (poultry) in one sector (agriculture.) Nothing about Chinese steel, manufacturing, hormone fed beef, etc. Again, literally billions worth of reasons for non EU countries (rest of the WTO basically the world) to punish the UK over this.
Considering the most basic of escalations are sanctions, not exactly a good thing for such an import dependent country.
It’s really a matter of time before the shoe drops as other countries begin seeing this “temporary” extension as a permanent one, and wanting in on the same treatment the EU is getting. Once one country makes the demand, the rest are going to dogpile on it with their own. Especially given there are quite a few non EU countries or trade blocs with enough economic and/or diplomatic heft to sanction first and justify it later, bypassing a WTO legal challenge. And again, billions worth of reasons to do so.
Threats of sanctions from the rest of the world would leave the UK in quite a pickle, really. Can…..
1. Eat the sanctions and continue relying on the EU. Sounds like “Global Britain” is instantly going kaput
2. Check EU goods as they do with other goods from 3rd countries it has no customs union with. Good luck doing that when UK customs is already stretched thin on the export side as it is. More than doubling it by stretching it to handle the larger import side seems ill advised.
3. Letting god knows what into the country unchecked, competing with home markets, ignoring UK laws like no chlorinated chicken, and ruining UK exports (nobody is going to trust UK exports without expensive verification)
1. This is tolerated at the moment because UK trusts EU quality. Makes the last two problems mentioned in 3 largely invisible. Heaven help you with Asian, African, South American, North American quality. Could be lower, could be higher. who knows, it wouldn’t be checked before being allowed in.
’They need us more than we need them’