Despite Donald Trump’s signal of an end to the war, the failure to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz could create uncertainty in the global oil market. This is primarily because approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through this route.

Published: March 31, 2026, 11:43 AM IST

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Strait of Hormuz- Representational AI image

US President Donald Trump wants a quick end to the ongoing war with Iran. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Trump says that opening the Strait of Hormuz is no longer necessary for victory. This change is crucial for the global oil market. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil (approximately 20 million barrels daily) passes through this route. Most of the oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE reaches Asia (especially China, India, Japan, and Korea) through this route.

According to a Moneycontrol report, the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased since the Iran-US-Israel war began. Normally, 150-160 ships transited daily, but now this has virtually stopped. This has affected global oil supplies. After the war began, Brent crude oil prices rose from $70-80 per barrel to around $100-110, even reaching $126 at times. This has also increased the prices of petrol and diesel in India, increasing the burden on ordinary people. Yesterday, on March 30th, crude oil prices reached $116 per barrel. Now, the big question is: what will happen if Trump ends the war but the Strait of Hormuz remains open?

Read more:
US might attack Iran again amid ongoing tension over nuclear programme and Strait of Hormuz crisis

Oil supply problems will persist

If the Strait of Hormuz is not fully opened, Gulf countries’ oil will be unable to flow out. Alternative routes (such as pipelines) have very limited capacity. This could lead to a global oil shortage. Asian countries will be most affected, as they import 80-85% of their oil through this route.

Oil prices could reach $200 per barrel

Experts say that prolonged disruptions will put pressure on the global economy. Inflation will rise and growth rates could decline. In import-dependent countries like India, petrol and diesel, transportation, and industry will become more expensive.

Trump says that the responsibility for opening the Strait of Hormuz lies with other countries (those that use oil). The US does not want to handle this alone. If diplomacy or allies (such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE) succeed in securing the Strait of Hormuz, some relief may be available. However, if Iran or its proxies keep it closed, prices will continue to fluctuate. If this route is closed or affected in a Trump-Iran war, it could lead to a severe oil shortage. Disrupting Iran’s daily production of 4.2 million barrels could pose a major problem. In such a scenario, oil prices could reach $200 per barrel.

Special impact on India

India is the world’s third-largest oil importer. A large portion of our oil comes from Gulf countries. If the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the cost of oil will increase, burdening the general budget. The government may have to provide subsidies, or petrol and diesel prices may rise. This will increase inflation and impact the economy. If Trump ends the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may remain high, and supply constraints will persist. Countries like India may face inflation and economic pressure. Full relief will only be achieved when the Strait of Hormuz reopens normally. Currently, markets are closely monitoring strategies and actions by allied countries.

Expert opinion

Analysts believe that the Strait of Hormuz is a very sensitive choke point. A prolonged disruption there is inevitable oil shortages and inflation. Some reports suggest that if the situation persists for more than two weeks, an energy crisis could deepen in Asia. Trump’s new stance (ending the war but not insisting on Hormuz) will keep the oil market uncertain. The Indian government will have to increase oil purchases from alternative sources (Russia, the United States, etc.) and utilize its strategic petroleum reserves.