Latvia’s defense minister says Moscow is bogged down in Ukraine, reducing its capacity for a large scale attack. He urges vigilance against provocations.
Latvia’s Minister of Defence, Raivis Melnais, is convinced that a direct conventional military attack by Russia on a NATO member country is currently impossible due to the prolonged war in Ukraine and the resistance of Ukrainian forces.
Melnais explained that Russia is stuck in Ukraine: Ukrainian defenders are repelling attacks, destroying Russian logistics and striking targets deep in the rear, which complicates the possibility of further advances, so a direct conventional attack on NATO is currently impossible.
According to the official, for a large-scale attack Moscow would have had to redeploy forces from Ukraine, position units near the Baltic states, and launch an assault. NATO, in his words, would take note of such actions sooner. Also, if Russia were able to carry out such a step, Ukraine would have far wider opportunities for countermeasures, which Moscow cannot allow itself.
Position on possible Russian actions and the readiness of forces
Can Russia afford to fight on two fronts? This would be a strategic mistake. The attack on Ukraine is already a strategic mistake and miscalculation. Therefore, in the near future Russia will not be able to do anything like that. I am saying this not only to reassure
– Raivis Melnais
Regarding Moscow’s ability to organize provocations, Melnais noted that they are already taking place. One tool he named is the organization of illegal migration. Other provocative actions are possible as well, but the army and the police are ready to respond.
If signs of provocations appear, we are ready to respond. There will be no green men walking around here, just as drones will not fly. If there is a drone – we will destroy it, if there are green men – the police or the State Security Service will arrest or neutralize them. And both the police and the armed forces are ready
– Raivis Melnais
In the future, the minister believes Moscow could rebuild its army, but NATO is already forming much stronger armed forces capable of stopping it, and if necessary defeating it, so that Russia cannot carry out similar plans.
He also stressed the need to be ready for provocations and to systematically prepare the forces for appropriate scenarios to defend the state.
As part of defensive measures, Latvia plans to deploy radar systems and drone-detection capabilities by the end of September to significantly strengthen protection against unmanned aircraft at the border with Russia.
Conclusion and prospects for defense
The Latvian forces’ view of the future remains unchanged: defense and readiness for any scenario will be key to maintaining stability in the region, especially through upgrading surveillance and border-control systems.