KEY POINTS

The International Monetary Fund says Ghana’s macroeconomic gains are becoming increasingly durable after the completion of the sixth and final review of its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme.
IMF Mission Chief Ruben Atoyan said Ghana’s next phase will focus on resilience, stronger institutions and private sector-led growth under a non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument.
The IMF said about 98% of debt claims covered by Ghana’s restructuring have already been restructured, with the remaining portion not seen as a major risk.
The fund also warned that fiscal slippage and contingent liabilities, especially from state-owned enterprises and the energy and cocoa sectors, remain key risks to debt sustainability.

Ghana is entering a new phase of economic management after completing the final review of its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme with the International Monetary Fund, with the fund saying the country’s stabilization gains are becoming more durable as fiscal adjustment, stronger macroeconomic indicators and structural reforms take hold.

Speaking in an exclusive television interview, IMF Mission Chief Ruben Atoyan said the focus is now shifting from crisis stabilization to building resilience and sustaining broader private sector-led growth, after what he described as a successful programme supported by stronger fiscal discipline and improved policy credibility.

“We believe that these gains are increasingly durable,” Atoyan said. He said the progress rests on “significant fiscal adjustment,” stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and reforms that have already been implemented to a large extent.

Atoyan pointed to lower inflation, stronger reserve coverage and a current account surplus as evidence that Ghana’s macroeconomic position has improved materially since the programme began. He added that debt restructuring is also nearly complete, reinforcing the view that the adjustment is likely to hold.

The comments come after the Bretton Woods institution completed the sixth and final review of Ghana’s ECF arrangement, a programme introduced as the country grappled with elevated debt, inflation pressures and acute macroeconomic stress.

Atoyan said the improvement in Ghana’s position cannot be explained by higher gold prices alone, even though the country has benefited from stronger export earnings from gold, cocoa and other commodities. Instead, he said tighter fiscal policy, restored confidence and reform momentum have all helped support reserve accumulation and macroeconomic stabilization.

“While the gold developments have supported and were a tailwind for Ghana’s stabilization, it was just one of the factors,” he said.

That message is central to the IMF’s assessment that Ghana can now transition from a financing arrangement to a Policy Coordination Instrument, or PCI, which does not provide disbursements but serves as a policy anchor and signal to investors.

Atoyan described the transition as a “major development” and called Ghana “a success story” in moving away from reliance on IMF financing toward a programme that is instead designed to endorse government policy credibility.

He said the PCI should serve as a “stamp of approval” on Ghana’s policy framework and send a signal to investors and domestic economic agents about the strength of macroeconomic management. Under the new arrangement, the emphasis will move toward institution-building, stronger public financial management and safeguards that can support confidence beyond the period of direct IMF funding.

The shift also gives Ghana somewhat more room to spend.

Atoyan said the fiscal target for the primary balance under the ECF was 1.5% of gross domestic product, which he described as very tight for an economy with significant development needs. Under the PCI, that target is expected to ease to 0.5% of GDP, creating more room for development spending, social priorities and policies that support growth.

Still, he said Ghana’s most important challenge now is to prove that policy credibility is lasting.

“The most important critical issue for Ghana is to confirm that policy credibility is durable,” Atoyan said. He added that authorities need to stay on the same reform trajectory, entrench fiscal controls and strengthen transparency and public oversight in decision-making.

Debt sustainability remains central to that effort. Atoyan said roughly 98% of all debt claims subject to Ghana’s restructuring have already been restructured, either through signed agreements or agreements in principle.

He said the remaining 2% does not present significant risks and that the restructuring process could be fully completed early next year. The IMF is expected to publish its staff report on the final ECF review shortly.

The fund has also upgraded Ghana’s debt risk assessment from debt distress to a high risk of debt distress, and Atoyan noted that the move to a moderate risk rating came two years earlier than initially expected.

He said the improvement was driven by both stronger policies and favorable external conditions. But he warned that a material weakening in fiscal policy could still reverse the gains, even if that is not the IMF’s base case.

“We don’t expect that to happen given that the fiscal safeguards have been introduced under the programme,” Atoyan said.

He added that once the fiscal council is fully operational and public financial management reforms introduced under the ECF are fully embedded, Ghana should have a stronger fiscal anchor.

Even so, the IMF sees important risks outside central government accounts.

Atoyan said much of Ghana’s past debt accumulation was linked not only to central government borrowing but to what he described as stock-flow adjustments and the materialization of contingent liabilities elsewhere in the public sector. That is why the PCI places particular emphasis on identifying, managing and transparently reporting fiscal risks tied to state-owned enterprises, especially in the cocoa, gold and energy sectors.

The gold sector remains a key part of that discussion.

Atoyan said Ghana’s domestic gold purchase programme has helped bring small-scale miners into the formal economy, improving official balance-of-payments reporting, broadening the tax base and supporting the buildup of external buffers.

He described that as a significant success, but said the programme also created costs because authorities had to pay strong prices to incentivize miners to sell formally. Those losses were booked on the balance sheet of the Bank of Ghana, which the IMF does not see as the best long-term approach.

In the fund’s view, those costs should be transferred transparently to the budget rather than sitting with the central bank, whose primary mandate is price stability and financial stability.

Atoyan said the planned shift of the programme to the Gold Board from July 1, with related costs reflected in the budget and the midyear fiscal review, represents a better framework for transparency, even if it does not fully remove the fiscal risks.

“Going forward, strengthening governance of the Gold Board and transparency surrounding this domestic gold purchase programme will be the key,” he said.

For investors and policymakers, the next test will be whether Ghana can convert stabilization into durable, diversified growth. Atoyan said that means moving away from excessive dependence on primary commodities, particularly gold, and building a broader economic base led by private sector activity rather than crisis-era support.