Kathmandu. Most countries in South Asia are in turmoil. South Asian countries have become unstable due to internal conflicts and domestic problems.
New governments have been formed in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh after protests. In Nepal too, a new government has been formed after the Gen Z protests and elections. In India, the Gen Z protest has recently taken a break. Which was led by the Cockroach Janata Party. The protest by the Cockroach Janata Party has been postponed for now after an agreement with the government. However, these countries are internally unstable.
Religious Conflict
Communal conflict escalated in Nepal just four months after a new government was formed through elections held in February. Three people have died due to the conflict. However, the tension that arose in the Madhesh region has come under control. Prime Minister Balen Shah addressed the nation on Thursday. On the same day, he met President Ram Chandra Paudel and had a telephone conversation with Vice President Ram Sahay Yadav.
On Friday, he also held talks with Madhesh-centric parties. Prime Minister Balen Shah’s activism has increased to resolve the conflict in Madhesh, while Home Minister Sudhan Gurung visited Sunsari on Thursday night and Siraha on Friday night, met the affected families there, and even signed agreements. Late Saturday night, he held talks with representatives of Hindu organizations in Dhanusha.
On the other hand, the activism of Ravi Lamichhane, chairman of the ruling party Rastriya Swatantra Party, has also increased. He called an all-party meeting on Wednesday and held discussions with religious leaders and elders of Hindu and Muslim communities on Friday. He held discussions with leaders of Madhesh-centric parties.
With initiatives from all sides to resolve the conflict in Nepal, it appears to be calm for now. However, curfews and prohibitory orders are still in effect in various places. Although some immediate solutions seem to have been found, long-term solutions remain to be addressed.
State of South Asia
The situation in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and India is similar. In 2022, the government of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was overthrown by youth protests. Subsequently, in 2024, a similar protest in Bangladesh overthrew the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power for a long time.
In 2082 BS, the Gen Z movement in Nepal overthrew the government led by UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli. In the recently concluded Gen Z protest in India, the Indian Education Minister resigned.
All these protests were due to economic crisis, public pressure, and political instability. International affairs expert and former ambassador Bijaykant Karna said that the Gen Z generation has risen against the old regime due to corruption, nepotism, and increasing authoritarian tendencies. He stated that even though the problems in these countries have been temporarily resolved, the restlessness of the Gen Z generation continues as long-term solutions have not been found.
In Sri Lanka, protests occurred due to sovereign debt crisis, high inflation, and scarcity of essential goods. In Bangladesh, protests erupted against the quota system where the families of freedom fighters were given public sector jobs. In Nepal, protests were triggered by corruption by old political parties and the then government’s ban on social media. Although the protest in India started over the issue of paper leaks, overall dissatisfaction with the government was also expressed in the protest.
After the Gen Z movement, Balendra Shah became the new Prime Minister, while in Bangladesh, Tariq Rahman of the established Bangladesh Nationalist Party became the Prime Minister. While Nepal is rejecting established leftist political parties, Anurakara Kumara Dissanayake, a leader of the Communist Party, became the President in Sri Lanka. In India, the protest led by the Cockroach Janata Party shook Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s position as well, but experts say the government controlled the damage by asking the Education Minister to resign.
Similar Problems
International conflict affairs expert Binoz Basnyat clarified that the problems in any country have not been resolved. ‘The situation in Sri Lanka remains the same. The situation in Bangladesh is the same, India’s situation is also the same, and conflict is still ongoing in Nepal. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Maldives, Bhutan are also in conflict,’ he said.
Basnyat stated that the initial enthusiasm is turning into apprehension, and there is no possibility of resolving the conflict in South Asia. ‘The religious conflict seen in Nepal and the Gen Z protest recently concluded in India are not recent occurrences; they have come after long preparation,’ he said.
The problems of South Asian countries appear to be similar. Former ambassador Karna said that governments formed with new mandates in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have failed to provide a sense of opportunity to the people, leading to renewed disappointment among the youth when these opportunities are not realized.
Basnyat stated that these conflicts are partly due to their own reasons and largely due to geopolitical reasons. He clarified that conflicts in South Asian countries are also occurring due to the US-China conflict and the India-China conflict.
According to a former secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China has increased its connectivity in South Asia. It has been building good relations with many countries in South Asia. Many countries have not been able to digest this.
The former secretary said, ‘Everyone knows who is being disadvantaged by China’s relationship with Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan. Everyone also knows who is causing the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Therefore, although the external cause of the conflict in these countries appears to be internal, geopolitics has had a significant impact.’
Maldives is in a strategic tug-of-war to balance India and China. After the changes in Nepal, China is not very satisfied with the events here. International affairs expert Basnyat said that the religious conflict seen in Nepal is very old and political parties have not been able to resolve it. He stated that religious conflict is also occurring due to geopolitics.
In Sri Lanka, youth discontent is increasing due to the economic situation. Its impact has already been seen in the local body elections. The ruling party’s vote share significantly decreased in the local body elections held earlier this year. In Bangladesh, the fear of violence is still present. Religious violence had also erupted there some time ago.
Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, who is living in exile in India, is preparing to return to Bangladesh. There is a possibility of renewed protests in Bangladesh after her return. Experts say that the situation in Bangladesh will also be determined by the upcoming local elections. Gen Z in India are warning of further protests.
Affected by External Conflicts
Countries in South Asia, already facing problems due to the Russia-Ukraine war, have seen their issues exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran. Experts say that countries in South Asia are severely affected by inflation, fuel rationing, and limited financial capacity to endure economic decline caused by these wars.
These countries depend on remittances from Gulf countries. However, the ongoing conflict there is affecting all these aspects. India is also a challenge for countries in South Asia. These countries want to advance their relationship with India in a new way, which has led to not-so-good relations with India.
India is an important source of humanitarian aid, development assistance, and infrastructure investment for countries in South Asia. The Iran war has made them even more dependent on India. Experts believe that they are dependent on India for goods like fertilizers and fuel. In this way, the countries in South Asia are entangled with each other. They are caught in their own conflicts.
Newly elected governments in South Asian countries have been unable to fulfill their promises, and geopolitical factors and complex regional relationships have led to new conflicts. Basnyat believes that the conflicts are becoming more complex as new problems are added before the old ones are resolved.