U.S. LNG exports slipped to 10.48 million metric tons in July from 10.6 million in June, and that happened while global prices were screaming for more supply. The Japan Korea Marker averaged $19.10 per million British thermal units. Europe’s TTF benchmark averaged $18.07. Asia was paying a premium over Europe and U.S. exporters still could not ship more because Freeport LNG and other facilities were running summer maintenance.
That is the frustration for bulls right now. The demand signal from overseas is strong. The export system cannot respond to it.
Europe took 4.76 million metric tons of U.S. LNG in July, up from 4.41 million in June. European storage was 57% full as of August 1, well below the five-year average of 74%. That is not a comfortable position heading into winter and it keeps the bid under U.S. exports even if the volumes are not accelerating. Asia came in slightly higher at 3.32 million metric tons. Brazil added demand during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Egypt pulled back to 0.63 million metric tons from a record 1.06 million in June, which took some buying pressure out at the worst time.
The LNG story is not bearish. It is just stuck. Global buyers want the cargoes. U.S. plants cannot deliver enough of them right now to tighten the domestic balance. When maintenance ends and export capacity comes fully back online, that changes. It has not changed yet.
Production and Storage Still Favor Sellers
Lower-48 dry gas production hit 112.5 billion cubic feet per day Monday, up 2.6% from a year ago. The EIA raised its 2026 production forecast to 111.2 Bcf per day in July. The rig count held at 127 last week, below February’s high but still enough to keep output elevated. There is nothing in the supply data that helps buyers right now.