Why Wall Street Keeps Ignoring SoFi’s Record Growth for Robinhood

SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) just posted the best quarter in its history, and the stock fell anyway. Membership hit a record, loan originations hit a record, and tangible book value grew faster than almost anyone expected. Yet shares dropped roughly 9% the day the numbers came out, part of a stretch that has left the stock down nearly 42% this year. The gap between what the business is doing and what the market is doing has rarely been this wide.

A Flywheel That Keeps Getting Cheaper To Spin

The growth engine behind that record quarter keeps compounding. SoFi added 1.1 million new members in FQ2 2026, a record, pushing its base to 15.8 million people, up 35% year over year. What matters more is how it is selling to them: 51% of new products went to existing members, up from 43% the prior quarter and 35% a year earlier, and the average member now uses 1.54 products, up from 1.46 twelve months ago. That is a company getting cheaper to grow, since selling another product to someone already banking with you costs far less than acquiring a stranger.

The balance sheet backs up that growth. Tangible book value jumped 80% year over year to $9.5 billion, or $7.34 per share, while deposits reached $45.5 billion and the total capital ratio sat at 18.8%, comfortably above the 10.5% regulatory minimum. Loan originations hit a record $14.8 billion, up 69%, and the personal loan charge-off rate actually fell 21 basis points even as that book expanded, a sign SoFi is not chasing volume by loosening standards. SoFi’s brokerage arm was also among the firms chosen for the record-breaking Space Exploration Technologies IPO, and brokerage revenue climbed 141% for the quarter. William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey called the results reason to “aggressively accumulate” the stock, arguing the larger balance sheet efficiently supports management’s 20% to 30% long-term return-on-equity target.

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The Profit Line That Refuses To Move

None of that explains why the profit outlook didn’t move. Management raised full-year adjusted net revenue guidance to $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, up from $4.66 billion, but left adjusted EBITDA guidance at $1.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share at $0.60. More revenue with no more profit attached is exactly the kind of detail the market prices quickly. CEO Anthony Noto pointed to a shift in the bank’s own rate expectations, from two cuts to two hikes this year, as the reason for the caution, alongside a choice to reinvest rather than bank the upside.

Story Continues

KBW’s Tim Switzer flagged this as a weaker-quality beat, since so much of the revenue growth traced back to balance sheet expansion rather than fee income. The technology platform segment gave skeptics another data point, with revenue down 24% year over year and contribution profit down 65% after the exit of a large client.

SoFi Versus Robinhood, By The Numbers

Hedge fund ownership in SoFi fell from 56 to 47 funds in Q1 2026, while Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) saw almost no change, slipping from 84 to 83 funds. Short interest in SoFi sits at 14.61% of its float, in heavy-skepticism territory, compared with just 4.87% for Robinhood. Short sellers have also raised concerns about gain-on-sale loan margins and SoFi’s loan platform business.

Despite the heavier short interest, SoFi trades at 27 times forward earnings, cheaper than Robinhood’s 42. Wall Street values Robinhood’s high-margin, asset-light trading platform far more generously than SoFi’s capital-intensive lending structure, which requires holding significant equity against its loan book.

What Would Have To Change

SoFi’s operating numbers are hard to argue with: faster cross-selling, a stronger balance sheet, and record lending, all while credit quality actually improved. The market’s hesitation comes down to one line that hasn’t moved, the profit guidance sitting still while revenue estimates climb, alongside a valuation that still assumes a return on equity SoFi hasn’t shown yet. For the growth story to keep winning skeptics over, EBITDA and earnings guidance will eventually need to catch up to the revenue trajectory. If it does, a stock carrying this much short interest and trading below its pricier peer has room to reprice.

While we acknowledge the risk and potential of SOFI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SOFI and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Why Wall Street Keeps Ignoring SoFi’s Record Growth for Robinhood

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