The border may look quieter than in 2022, but officials warn that Moscow is still testing how far Minsk can be pushed.

No buildup of an offensive force on Belarusian territory toward the Ukrainian border has been observed, but Moscow continues to pressure Belarus to join the war.

Andrii Demchenko, a spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service, said this during a television program.

Our units and the General Staff also note that there is no buildup of any offensive force on Belarusian territory toward our border. But, once again, pressure from Russia on Belarus continues in an effort to involve it more actively in the war against our country – including through attempts to destabilize the situation along the border

– Andrii Demchenko

According to Demchenko, the border with Belarus is now significantly better fortified than it was in 2022, particularly in terms of engineering measures and fortifications.

This concerns engineering measures and fortifications, as well as changes to mine and explosive barriers in the areas posing the greatest threat. Belarus must understand and see what we are doing: we do not pose a threat to Belarus. But if Belarus suddenly decides to join the war with its own forces, it must understand what it will be facing

– Demchenko

Demchenko emphasized that Belarus must understand Kyiv’s response to any possible actions on its part, and that Ukraine is not seeking escalation but is ready to act according to the situation.

According to official sources, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 15 that new attempts to involve Belarus in the war had been identified. Also in May, then-Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that the threat from Belarusian territory was real.

Roberta Brovdi (Madyar), the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, said that Ukraine had already identified 500 targets in Belarus in case Lukashenko decided to join the war.

On June 19, the president said that repeaters had been deployed on Belarusian territory along the border with Ukraine to help guide Russian strikes against civilians. The head of state emphasized that the Belarusian side could dismantle these systems itself; if it failed to do so within a week, Ukraine might take corresponding action.

National Guard Commander Oleksandr Pivnenko expressed the view that the threat of enemy action from Belarusian territory would become real if around 70,000 Russian troops were concentrated there, but that Ukraine’s Defense Forces were doing everything possible to prevent this.

Key conclusions regarding border security and further action

Although no clear buildup of an offensive force from Belarus toward the Ukrainian border has been recorded to date, the situation remains tense because of pressure from Russia and possible destabilizing steps. Ukraine says it is ready to respond according to the circumstances and is keeping potential threats from Belarusian territory under control. The authorities have data on the actions and statements of officials, highlighting the importance of cooperation with international partners and providing sufficient support to stabilize the border.

Ultimately, the priorities remain strengthening border defenses, careful monitoring, and readiness for any scenario involving Belarus or Russia. Ukraine continues to follow developments and inform the public about changes in the situation.