Rocket Lab (RKLB) enters its second-quarter earnings report Monday with momentum at its back and a Street consensus that leaves almost no room for disappointment. Shares surged 9% on Friday, lifting the company’s market capitalization to roughly $50 billion, as investors bet that the launch and space systems provider can extend a record-breaking run that has seen quarterly revenue climb for four consecutive periods.
The consensus estimate compiled by Wall Street calls for revenue of about $232 million, a jump of roughly 60% from the $144 million reported in the same quarter a year earlier. Management’s own forecast, issued in May, points to a range of $225 million to $240 million. Hitting the midpoint would mark a 61% year-over-year gain and deliver a fifth straight quarterly revenue record for the company.
Rocket Lab’s trajectory has been steep. After posting $144 million in the second quarter of 2025, the company generated $155 million, then $180 million, and finally $200.3 million to open 2026. The first quarter was particularly strong: revenue growth accelerated to 63.5% year over year, and the company beat every metric it had guided to, including gross margins and adjusted EBITDA. The contract backlog ended the period at a record $2.2 billion, up 108% from the year-ago quarter.
The pace of new bookings has outstripped even the breakneck revenue growth. Rocket Lab signed 31 new Electron and HASTE launch contracts in the first quarter alone, plus five dedicated Neutron missions. That is more launch business sold in three months than in all of 2025, and it pushed the company’s manifest past 70 contracted missions.
For the second quarter, management guided for GAAP gross margins of 33% to 35% and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $20 million to $26 million. Those figures will be scrutinized as closely as the top line. Rocket Lab remains unprofitable on a net-income basis, having lost approximately $183 million over the trailing 12 months, and the pace at which losses narrow is central to the thesis supporting a $50 billion valuation. The company entered the quarter with access to more than $2 billion in total liquidity, providing ample runway to fund growth in the interim.
A Surge of Government Contracts
Some of the most consequential developments for Rocket Lab won’t appear in Monday’s numbers at all. On July 27, the company announced a $266 million missile-defense deal with the U.S. Space Force covering 12 suborbital launches, with options for up to six additional missions. It is the largest launch contract Rocket Lab has ever signed, and the first flight is expected before the end of this year.
A week later, on August 4, the Space Force awarded Rocket Lab a separate $397 million contract to build, launch, and operate advanced flat satellites — branded “Flatellites” — for the SB-AMTI airborne-threat-tracking program. The company plans to use its forthcoming Neutron rocket for those missions. The back-to-back awards have reinforced the view that Rocket Lab is cementing its position as a critical national-security launch provider alongside its growing commercial manifest.
The company also disclosed three additional Electron missions for Japanese customer iQPS, starting in late 2027, bringing that customer’s total bookings to 18 launches.
The Neutron rocket is expected to be a focal point on the earnings call. Investors will be listening for any update on whether the company still expects the first Neutron launch to occur toward the end of 2026. The medium-lift vehicle is central to Rocket Lab’s strategy of moving beyond the small-launch market and competing for larger government and commercial payloads.
Valuation and Sentiment Collide
Despite the operational momentum, Rocket Lab’s stock has been under pressure. Shares are down 57% from their all-time high of $151 reached in June, though they remain up 84% over the past 12 months. The pullback has created a sharp divergence between market pricing and analyst expectations. The average price target among Wall Street analysts stands at roughly $110 to $111, implying upside of 33% to 49% from current levels. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on 13 Buy recommendations and 4 Holds.
Skeptics point to the valuation. Rocket Lab trades at a price-to-sales ratio of about 53, far above the tech-sector average of roughly 7. The company’s lack of profitability — it posted a net loss of $45 million in the first quarter — means the stock is priced for perfection. Any stumble in the revenue trajectory or a delay in the Neutron timeline could trigger an outsized reaction.
Sentiment in the space sector can also be influenced by developments at privately held SpaceX, which dominates the industry and whose valuation swings can ripple across publicly traded peers. Rocket Lab’s niche status means it is not immune to those crosscurrents.
A Broader Space Earnings Day
Rocket Lab is not the only space company reporting Monday. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is also scheduled to deliver second-quarter results after the close. The two stocks have followed similar arcs — large gains followed by steep summer pullbacks — and both have rebounded over the past week.
AST SpaceMobile recently launched BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 from Cape Canaveral, featuring the largest communications arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit. The company is expanding commercial testing across eight European countries with partners including Vodafone, Orange, Telefonica, and Deutsche Telekom. It holds agreements with nearly 60 mobile operators representing more than three billion subscribers and has over $1.2 billion in contracted commercial revenue commitments.
Analysts expect AST SpaceMobile to report quarterly revenue of $34.4 million, a 133% sequential jump, with an adjusted loss narrowing to $0.29 per share. The stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with 4 Buys, 5 Holds, and 1 Sell, and an average price target implying roughly 23.5% upside.
For Rocket Lab, the bar is higher. The Street consensus for EPS stands at a loss of $0.06. With the stock having rallied into the print, the reaction will hinge on whether the company can deliver another quarter of accelerating growth and, perhaps more importantly, maintain the timeline for Neutron’s debut.