Sernur Yassıkaya / Chief Foreign News Editor of Yeni Şafak
The modern Middle East is historically characterized as a region gripped by deep-seated conflicts, foreign interventions, and instability. However, recent developments indicate that this strategically important region stands on the threshold of a new era.
The Cold War equation first unraveled in Europe with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. During this period, Europe—bolstered by the US security umbrella—emerged as an island of prosperity; this status was further cemented as former Iron Curtain countries were brought into the European Union fold. Until the war triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe experienced an unprecedentedly long period of peace.
Meanwhile, in the Far East, China successfully accelerated its economic development model by leveraging the opportunities presented by the wave of globalization. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, Beijing extended its economic model into the political and military spheres, positioning itself as a rival hegemonic power to the United States. While Latin America ceased to be Washington’s “backyard,” Africa—long under the domination of colonial powers—also discovered new avenues for outreach and development.
The Middle East, however, was the only region that failed to reap the benefits of the post-Cold War era. On the contrary, a series of events—including the 1990 Gulf War, new foreign interventions, civil wars, assassinations, and Israel’s expansionist policies—left the region excluded from the global trend of economic enrichment.
After the passage of 35 years, we are witnessing the dismantling of the Cold War order that hung over the Middle East like the Sword of Damocles.
Makkah agreement opens a new path
A watershed moment is unfolding: the Mecca Agreement—signed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif—aims for joint defense cooperation and a deterrence mission among Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, marking a turning point for the region akin to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
We are at a critical juncture signifying the end of an order established after Israel’s founding in 1948—a system that played the region’s powerful nations against one another and prevented them from ever finding common ground.
Signed by the region’s nuclear, economic, and political powers, this agreement reflects the desire of regional nations—long treated as a playground for global powers—to break free from their shackles.
The Türkiye-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia alliance opens a new door for other regional countries to pursue cooperation.
It remains to be seen whether they will choose to walk through this door or become partners in Israel’s destructive regional policies; it is a major test of sincerity.
The Mecca Agreement also establishes the framework for the model partnership whose foundations were laid through developments that have accelerated between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia over the past six months.
A NEW GEOPOLITICAL ERA
The Middle East is undergoing one of the most comprehensive geopolitical transformations of recent years. The Abraham Accords—which stood at the center of regional politics roughly four years ago with the aim of integrating Israel into the Arab world—have largely lost their political weight today, even though they remain legally in force.
Shifts in security perceptions following the genocide in Gaza, the military strategy Israel has pursued along the Lebanon-Syria-Iran axis, and the resulting cost to regional stability have prompted many actors—particularly Gulf states—to explore new avenues.
One of the most notable developments in this emerging landscape is the political, economic, and strategic cooperation between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, which has gained significant momentum over the past six months.
This rapprochement cannot be viewed merely as a normalization of relations between the two nations; rather, it is seen as a cornerstone of a new regional order capable of reshaping the region’s security architecture, prioritizing economic integration, and limiting external interventions.
Recent agreements covering transportation, trade, customs, and private-sector cooperation serve as tangible indicators of this strategic transformation. Furthermore, the international reaction to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed on August 7, underscored the immense significance of this trilateral pact.
Israel’s ambition to become a geoeconomic hub and the region’s hegemonic power by tearing the region apart through chaos and terror has been largely thwarted by the agreements signed. Indeed, by refusing to join the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia avoided falling into the “Camp David trap” that had turned Egypt into a state dependent on Israel in 1978.
Following the harsh reaction from Israel regarding the nuclear cooperation agreement Riyadh signed with the US, it would be accurate to say that Riyadh has become more determined to enhance cooperation—particularly in defense—with other Muslim nations in the region.
What is actually unfolding is a manifestation of the fact that the “win-win” strategy—championed by President Erdoğan, one of the most experienced leaders on the global stage—has finally gained acceptance among the countries of the region.
A statement issued by the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications following the agreement included the following remarks: “The agreement does not conflict with Türkiye’s existing international alliance commitments, including NATO; on the contrary, it serves as a complementary cooperation mechanism that supports regional security. Türkiye’s development of regional partnerships is not an alternative to its NATO membership. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement is not an aggressive military bloc but a defense-oriented arrangement aimed at enhancing deterrence. The agreement does not target any third country or bloc; rather, it aims to strengthen defense industry cooperation, military training, technology sharing, and regional stability.”
This statement clearly articulates the objective sought through the Mecca Agreement.
With its capacity to reinforce Türkiye’s 360-degree diplomatic approach, this tripartite agreement will serve as a significant lever for Ankara in terms of global influence.
ABRAHAM ACCORDS face a changed regional reality
Launched with high expectations in 2020, the Abraham Accords had facilitated diplomatic normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Washington’s goal was to establish a Middle East axis—with Israel as the dominant power—that would eventually include Saudi Arabia.
However, the genocide in Gaza, the security crisis and geoeconomic upheaval in the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli aggression against Iran, and Israel’s reckless attacks and threats against regional nations prompted Saudi Arabia to explore new avenues.
Despite intense diplomatic pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump, the Riyadh government suspended the normalization process with Israel. Saudi Arabia made it clear that taking such a step was unfeasible—both in terms of regional legitimacy and domestic public opinion—without a lasting resolution to the Palestinian issue.
This development marked a significant rupture in the plan for regional chaos that Israel had long sought to construct, while also accelerating the shift of Gulf states toward alternative partnerships.
A MODEL PARTNERSHIP IS BEING ESTABLISHED
High-level contacts between Ankara and Riyadh over the past six months indicate that relations have entered a new phase, extending beyond the diplomatic sphere to encompass economic and security dimensions.
Transport agreements aimed at reviving the historic Hejaz Railway route between the two countries are particularly noteworthy. The planned corridor seeks to establish a new logistics network connecting Türkiye to the Gulf via Aleppo, Damascus, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Long-term plans envision extending this line as far as Oman and the Indian Ocean.
This project is viewed not merely as a transport investment but as a strategic integration model that will boost economic interdependence, expand trade volumes, and foster mutual trust among the nations involved.
The rapprochement between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia is also significantly influencing discussions surrounding the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
The original design—which envisioned a route starting in India and reaching Europe via the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Greece—has been completely shelved. One of the strongest alternatives currently on the table is a new road and rail link reaching the Mediterranean via Syria and Türkiye.
Should this scenario materialize, Türkiye would emerge as a pivotal logistics hub connecting Europe, the Mediterranean, the Gulf, and Asia, while the strategic advantage Israel had hoped to gain through the Port of Haifa would largely be nullified.
Syria becomes central to the new equation
The overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime on December 8, 2024, marked the end of the Baath Party’s rule in Syria, which had lasted for over six decades.
This development shook the status quo in the Middle East and reshaped the region’s balance of power. The fall of the Assad regime brought about significant shifts in regional power dynamics, particularly for actors such as Israel and Iran.
Concurrently, the presence of Russia—which had exerted influence in the region through its support for the Assad regime since the Soviet era—was drastically curtailed following December 8.
Against this backdrop, the US and the European Union began to gradually ease sanctions against Damascus.
The new landscape emerging in Syria stands as a pivotal factor in the reshaping of the Middle East.
WHAT DOES A TÜRKİYE WITHOUT TERRORISM MEAN?
Alongside these regional developments, the PKK terrorist organization’s announcement that it is disbanding—a result of the gains Türkiye has achieved in its fight against terrorism—and the significant steps taken toward the goal of a “Terror-Free Türkiye” are also noteworthy.
Last week, the framework bill intended to establish the legal basis for the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process was approved by the Justice Commission of the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM).
This development demonstrates that Türkiye has made significant strides at both regional and national levels toward ridding the region of terrorism.
The goal of a “Terror-Free Türkiye” is of great importance not only for resolving Türkiye’s own security issues but also for reshaping the security architecture of Syria, Iraq, and the Middle East as a whole.
Türkiye’s efforts to mitigate domestic security challenges while simultaneously developing regional cooperation mechanisms will expand Ankara’s room for maneuver within the new Middle East equation.
ISRAEL IS NOW A ROGUE STATE
Another significant factor that will shape the new era in the Middle East is the role played by Iran and Israel in the region.
For many years, these two nations have pursued policies diametrically opposed to one another and have acted as key players fueling regional instability.
Israel’s policies of genocide and occupation in Palestine are not only increasingly isolating Tel Aviv on the international stage but are also transforming it into an actor that threatens regional stability and peace through its aggressive conduct. This situation stands out as a primary driver of the region’s instability. However, the emerging paradigm in the Middle East suggests that both actors need to alter their positions.
It is a fact that Iran is navigating a difficult period due to economic sanctions while simultaneously facing mounting internal social and political pressures. Israel, for its part, may be compelled to adopt a different approach in its relations with former allies. Established by Zionism to serve as an outpost of Western hegemony in the East, Israel is rapidly evolving into a pariah state, ostracized both internationally and regionally.
Clearly, it is imperative that Israel—the last remaining vestige of the region’s protracted Cold War—be compelled to undergo a process of regime change grounded in regional realities and United Nations resolutions, and that the Zionist structure be dismantled in favor of a democratic system. In this context, the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state with its capital in Jerusalem and based on the 1967 borders would mark a crucial step toward stripping Israel of its character as a terrorist entity.
The Test of Sincerity Facing Regional Countries
The transformation the Middle East faces today is not merely a matter of shifting regional power balances. The fundamental issue is whether the order that has persisted for nearly 35 years—sustaining the region’s last vestiges of the Cold War—is coming to an end.
Therefore, the tripartite agreement signed in Mecca by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan should not be viewed simply as a defense pact. This agreement signifies the determination of these nations to redefine their security, economic ties, and political futures.
Just as the fall of the Berlin Wall heralded a new era in Europe, the signatures in Mecca could symbolize the beginning of the end of the long Cold War in the Middle East.
Regional nations now face two choices: to cooperate and create a shared zone of security and prosperity, or to remain pawns in the rivalry between external powers. Thus, the door opened in Mecca stands not only before Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan but before the entire Middle East. The question now is whether the region’s nations will choose to step through that door. It is also a crucial test of sincerity for all the region’s actors.